The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. One great example is Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) which saw its share price drive 184% higher over five years. It's down 1.5% in the last seven days.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
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To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Over half a decade, Deere managed to grow its earnings per share at 19% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 23% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
Dive deeper into Deere's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Deere's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Deere the TSR over the last 5 years was 203%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
We're pleased to report that Deere shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 34% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 25% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Deere , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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