银行业本周聚焦：银行理财2025H1半年报：存续规模达30.67万亿母行代销占比降至65%左右

国盛证券

07/27

一、2025 上半年理财市场运行情况7 月25 日银行理财登记中心发布《中国银行业理财市场2025 上半年报告》，上半年银行理财市场运行呈现如下特征：1、规模：理财规模平稳增长，现金管理类产品持续缩水截至2025 年二季度末，银行理财产品存续规模合计30.67 万亿元，同比增长7.53%，其中现金管理类产品存续规模6.4 万亿元，同比下降14.55%，或由于存款利率调降及同业存款利率调控政策出台等...

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万亿元，同比下降14.55%，或由于存款利率调降及同业存款利率调控政策出台等...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250727153640a465a13e&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1997245177.USD","symbol_name":"安联神洲A股基金","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250727153640a465a13e&s=b","article_id":"2554710814","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250727153640a465a13e&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, 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年以来现金管理类产品规模延续下降趋势，对存量规模形成一定拖累。2、市场格局：理财公司市占率提升截至2025 年二季度末，已开业的32 家理财公司（上半年新开业浙银理财）理财产品存续规模占全市场的比例达到89.61%，相较上年末提升1.8pc。在理财产品净值化持续推进背景下，头部理财公司在产品创设、投研能力、客户渠道等方面较尾部中小机构的差距或进一步拉大，由此加剧理财市场马太效应。3、资产配置：信用债配置比例下降，公募基金占比提升较为明显截至2025 年二季度末，理财产品资产配置以标准化债权类资产为主（债券+现金及银行存款+同业存单），合计存续规模占比 80.4%（（ 较上年末下降1.4pc）。其中，债券仍为理财主投资产，6 月末占比41.8%，较上年末下降1.7pc，其中信用债、利率债占总投资资产比例分别为38.8%、3.0%，较上年末分别下降2.3pc、提升0.7pc；同业存单占比亦呈现相同趋势，占比较上年末下降0.6pc 至13.8%，而现金及银行存款占比则提升0.9pc 至24.8%。此外，银行理财对公募基金的配置比例延续提升趋势，截至6 月末占比大幅提升1.3pc 至4.2%，在资产荒背景下，银行理财资产端通过配置基金以增厚收益。其他资产方面，非标、拆放同业及债券买入返售、权益类资产占比分别为5.5%、6.6%、2.4%，相对上年末变化不显著。4、理财收益：收益率延续下行2025 上半年，理财产品平均年化收益率为2.12%，较2024 年下降53bp，当前低利率特征较为明显，资产收益率不断走低，理财产品收益率自2023年以来持续下行。5、理财代销：母行代销金额占比已降至65%左右理财公司持续拓展母行以外的代销渠道，已开业的理财公司中，2 家理财公司的理财产品仅由母行代销，30 家理财公司的理财产品除母行代销外，还打通了其他银行的代销渠道。截至2025 年6 月末，全市场有569 家机构代销了理财公司发行的理财产品，较年初增加7 家，而由母行代销金额占比已降至65%左右。二、板块观点关税政策或对出口短期带来冲击，但中长期看，国内稳地产、促消费、加大民生保障等扩张性政策有望加速落地，托底经济稳增长。而银行板块受益于政策催化，顺周期主线的个股或有α；同时，由于经济修复需要一定的时间、且预计降息仍有空间，红利策略或仍有持续性。顺周期策略下，宁波银行、邮储银行、招商银行、常熟银行值得关注。红利策略下，上海银行、招商银行、江苏银行、渝农商行、沪农商行值得关注，以及基本面发生积极变化的重庆银行值得关注。三、重点数据跟踪权益市场跟踪：1）交易量：本周股票日均成交额18489.02 亿元，环比上周增加3025.15亿元。2）两融：余额1.94 万亿元，较上周增加1.96%。3）基金发行：本周非货币基金发行份额276.04 亿元，环比上周增加61.20亿元。7 月以来共计发行925.76 亿元，同比增加390.93 亿元。其中股票型282.73 亿元，同比增加231.01 亿元；混合型85.31 亿元，同比增加54.03 亿元。利率市场跟踪：1）同业存单：A、量：根据Wind 数据，本周同业存单发行规模为5156.90亿元，环比上周减少4307.90 亿元；当前同业存单余额20.75 万亿元，相比6 月末减少3657.80 亿元；B、价：本周同业存单发行利率为1.61%，环比上周减少1bp；7 月发行利率为1.61%，较6 月减少5bps。2）票据利率：本周半年国有大行+股份行转贴现平均利率为0.74%，环比上周下降10bps，7 月平均利率为0.86%，环比6 月下降20bps。本周半年城商行银票转贴现平均利率为0.90%，环比上周下降10bps，7 月平均利率为1.02%，环比6 月下降20bps。3）10 年期国债收益率：本周10 年期国债收益率平均为1.71%，环比上周增加4bps。4）地方政府专项债发行规模：本周新发行专项债2054.40 亿元，环比上周增加440.16 亿元，年初以来累计发行25943.86 亿元。5）特殊再融资债发行进度：本周新发行特殊再融资债118.65 亿元，平均利率2.08%，全年累计发行18304.35 亿元。风险提示：房地产、资本市场政策推进不及预期；消费复苏不及预期；银行资产质量恶化。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}

银行业本周聚焦：银行理财2025H1半年报：存续规模达30.67万亿 母行代销占比降至65%左右

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