While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Tianjin Jinran Public Utilities Company Limited (HKG:1265) share price has gained 22% in the last three months. But don't envy holders -- looking back over 5 years the returns have been really bad. In that time the share price has delivered a rude shock to holders, who find themselves down 67% after a long stretch. So we're hesitant to put much weight behind the short term increase. We'd err towards caution given the long term under-performance.
While the last five years has been tough for Tianjin Jinran Public Utilities shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
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Given that Tianjin Jinran Public Utilities didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last half decade, Tianjin Jinran Public Utilities saw its revenue increase by 5.0% per year. That's far from impressive given all the money it is losing. It's likely this weak growth has contributed to an annualised return of 11% for the last five years. We want to see an acceleration of revenue growth (or profits) before showing much interest in this one. When a stock falls hard like this, some investors like to add the company to a watchlist (in case the business recovers, longer term).
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
Investors should note that there's a difference between Tianjin Jinran Public Utilities' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Dividends have been really beneficial for Tianjin Jinran Public Utilities shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 63%, over the last 5 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.
Tianjin Jinran Public Utilities shareholders gained a total return of 11% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 10% endured over half a decade. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Tianjin Jinran Public Utilities (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.
Of course Tianjin Jinran Public Utilities may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
Discover if Tianjin Jinran Public Utilities might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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