Pudgy Penguins (PENGU), a Solana-based meme coin, has been the only top-10 Solana meme asset to stay in profit over the past week. But recent data suggests the party might be winding down.

The token posted a 31% gain over seven days, yet has dropped around 11% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, exchange flows, whale behavior, and momentum indicators all point to possible downside. So, is PENGU price due for a sharper correction? Or is it just cooling off before another bounce?

Sell Pressure Still Lingers

Whale activity continues to lean bearish. In the last 24 hours, whales trimmed another 2.4% of PENGU’s circulating supply. At the current price of $0.04, that’s around 152 million PENGU tokens worth over $6 million. While the pace of selling has slowed compared to the 30-day and 7-day trends, the overall direction remains downward.

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This marks a continuation of a multi-week trend. In the past month, whales offloaded over 14% of their holdings. That pressure has clearly weighed on price, and though it’s easing, it hasn’t reversed. And that’s not all of it!

Exchange inflows jumped 2.18% in just the last 24 hours, bringing the total exchange-held PENGU to 15.79 billion. That means roughly 336 million tokens, worth about $13.4 million, were moved to exchanges in a single day. These kinds of spikes usually indicate rising sell pressure, as traders prepare to offload their holdings.

Chaikin Money Flow Shows Fading Momentum

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a measure of accumulation and distribution, is flashing a bearish divergence. While PENGU’s price made higher highs earlier this month, CMF has now formed consecutive lower highs, a pattern last seen since May. This pattern points to waning buying pressure, even as the price tried to push up.

As the price is already under pressure and exchange inflows are rising, it might break lower. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is a volume-weighted indicator that tracks the flow of money in and out of an asset to gauge buying or selling pressure.

PENGU Price Hangs by a Thread at $0.037

Technically, the PENGU price is holding right above a key support at $0.037, which aligns with the 0.0.236 level of the Fibonacci retracement indicator. It is drawn from the $0.0077 low to its all-time high of $0.46. The $0.037 level has seen bounces before, but if it fails, the next solid support lies near $0.031 — the 0.382 Fib level.

The bulls are clearly trying to defend this zone, but given the mounting sell pressure and momentum loss, it won’t take much to tip things lower. If the $0.037 level breaks convincingly, a drop to $0.031 becomes highly probable.

However, if the PENGU price manages to bounce back and clear past its recently formed all-time high, more so with improved CMF and dropping exchange inflows, the bearish hypothesis would cease to exist.