Adds comments from Moody's, Scope and DBRS from paragraph 5 onwards
By Marc Jones
LONDON, July 29 (Reuters) - The sharp increase in U.S. trade tariffs on the European Union will not trigger immediate sovereign rating cuts, but could compound existing pressures, Fitch and other agencies said on Tuesday, while Moody's warned of the effect on exporting firms.
One of Fitch's top sovereign analysts, Ed Parker, said the United States' baseline tariff of 15% on imports from the EU was in line with assumptions the rating agency has had since March and therefore did not materially shift its economic forecasts.
Nevertheless, the 15% rate is a huge increase relative to the 1.2% rate of last year, he said.
"We don’t expect the increase in the tariff rate to directly drive EU rating changes on its own, but it could compound existing credit pressures," Parker told Reuters.
Smaller European-based agency Scope Ratings and Morningstar DBRS echoed the view, with Scope's head of sovereign ratings, Alvise Lennkh-Yunus, saying the tariffs arrived "against a backdrop of accumulating economic shocks".
At a sector level, Moody's warned that "the credit effects will be significant" for companies that export a lot to the United States, depend on complex global supply chains and have limited pricing power in their markets.
That includes carmakers like Stellantis STLAM.MI and Volkswagen VOWG.DE, whose ratings Moody's recently downgraded.
Large diversified European manufacturing companies like Siemens and ABB generate about 25% of their revenue in the United States. But they tend to follow local-for-local strategies, sourcing at least 80% of their procurement within the U.S. and should be able to pass at least some of the tariff increases on to customers.
Uncertainty still remains about key goods such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The pharmaceutical sector amounts to 25% of all EU exports to the U.S., analysts estimate.
The exemption of aircraft components meanwhile eases expected tariff-related pressures for Airbus AIR.PA and MTU Aero Engines MTXGn.DE, "which reinforces our already positive outlook for the global aerospace and defence sector," Moody's said.
It also said the 15% rate had been broadly in line with expectations it laid out when it cut its euro zone economic growth forecast for the year to below 1% in May.
It did not give an EU-wide sovereign view, although it said Ireland, which it rates at Aa3 and has a 'positive' outlook on, was most exposed with total value-added exports to the U.S. accounting for around 8% of its GDP back in 2020.
(Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
((marc.jones@thomsonreuters.com; +44 (0)20 7513 4042; Reuters Messaging: marc.jones.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net X/Twitter @marcjonesrtrs))
免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。