Interest Rates Expected to Fall Fast in Brazil Next Year -- Market Talk

Dow Jones

2025/07/31

1229 ET - Brazil's central bank is expected to pause its aggressive hiking cycle later today, but borrowing costs are unlikely to fall before December, Bank of America economists write. However, they foresee a fast cutting cycle that would take the current 15% rate to 11.25% by December 2026, "as we see a benign trajectory for inflation, economic activity, and the currency ahead." Looser fiscal policy and trade tensions are risks, they say. Those could be meaningful. General elections next year could drive higher government spending and there are no indications that Trump's 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports set to go into effect Friday will be negotiated down anytime soon. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 30, 2025 12:29 ET (16:29 GMT)

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However, they foresee a fast cutting cycle that would take the current 15% rate to 11.25% by December 2026, \"as we see a benign trajectory for inflation, economic activity, and the currency ahead.\" Looser fiscal policy and trade tensions are risks, they say. Those could be meaningful. General elections next year could drive higher government spending and there are no indications that Trump's 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports set to go into effect Friday will be negotiated down anytime soon. 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