Should You Buy Pfizer (PFE) Stock Before August 5? Here's What History Says

Motley Fool
07-31
  • Pfizer has beaten its earnings per share (EPS) estimates in its past 12 quarters.
  • Beating EPS estimates hasn't always meant positive movements for Pfizer's share price.
  • The stock's low valuation and ultra-high dividend make it a good choice for long-term investors.

Pfizer (PFE -0.59%) has been around for over 175 years, but it became a true household name during the COVID-19 pandemic as one of the main vaccine suppliers. That led to its stock price and revenue skyrocketing, and even brought Pfizer's market cap to over $340 billion at one point.

Since its late-2021 peak, Pfizer's stock is down over 60%. In the past three years, it's off by 52%, even while beating its earnings per share (EPS) estimates in all 12 reported earnings in that time.

Pfizer will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Aug. 5. Although we won't know if it'll continue its beats streak until then, it's probably not a good idea to try to time your investment around the date. Let's take a look at why.

NYSE" fifty_two_week_high="31.32" fifty_two_week_low="20.91" gross_margin="66.93" logo="https://g.foolcdn.com/art/companylogos/mark/PFE.png" market_cap="$135B" pe_ratio="17.26" percent_change="-0.59" symbol="PFE" volume="9,183,350">

There's no correlation between Pfizer's earnings and immediate stock price moves

You would think that a company beating its earnings estimates would excite investors and lead to positive stock price movements, but that's unfortunately not how the stock market operates. Other factors influence stock price movements -- such as future guidance, the macroeconomic environment, and overall investor sentiment -- so focusing on earnings alone can misguide you.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Even with Pfizer's consistency in beating earnings estimates, history has shown that this hasn't always sent its stock price up. The table below shows its next-day stock price movements after earnings reporting.

Reported QuarterBeat EPS Estimates?Positive Next-Day Stock Price Move
May 2025YesYes
Feb. 2025YesNo
Oct. 2024YesNo
July 2024YesYes
May 2024YesYes
Jan. 2024YesNo
Aug. 2023YesNo
May 2023YesNo

Data sources: AlphaQuery and YCharts.

Regardless of the company, it's helpful to remember this: It's never a good idea to try to time the market, because the market doesn't behave rationally -- at least, in the short term.

Pfizer is a good value opportunity

If you're looking for reasons to invest in Pfizer, they shouldn't revolve around its upcoming earnings date. Instead, invest because of its cheap valuation and ultra-high dividend yield.

Pfizer is currently trading at 8 times its forward earnings, which is less than competitors like Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie, and Eli Lilly, and far below the S&P 500 healthcare sector's 16.5 average.

PFE PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.

Pfizer's stock has lagged behind the overall market, but this low valuation gives it more long-term upside than downside, in my opinion. We can't predict how its stock will perform in the near-term, but its 7% dividend yield (as of July 29) is a great incentive to keep investors patient.

If you're in on Pfizer for the long term, now seems like a good opportunity to begin a stake (or increase your current shares). But if you're looking to make some quick cash from a potential post-earnings swing, you're essentially gambling.

免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。

热议股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10