Moderna (MRNA) reported Q2 COVID vaccine revenue of $114 million, topping the $89 million analyst estimate, but still ended up lowering its 2025 outlook, RBC Capital Markets said in a note Monday.

The company lowered its 2025 revenue outlook to between $1.5 and $2.2 billion from $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion but kept its year-end cash forecast at $6 billion, the investment firm said.

The company's planned 10% workforce reduction will cut research and development costs by about $400 million, RBC said.

Moderna expects to break even by 2028, but that requires a significant rebound in revenue, according to RBC.

COVID vaccination demand fell 10% to 11% in the spring season compared with last year, which could set an easier benchmark for fall sales.

The FDA approved Moderna's next-generation COVID and RSV updates in the quarter, showing ongoing regulatory support, and the company will file for flu and COVID-flu vaccine approvals sequentially after withdrawing its earlier combined application, RBC analysts noted.

Moderna updated its vaccine pipeline, announcing a new phase two trial for metastatic melanoma and an updated analysis plan for its CMV vaccine trial, with final results expected in 2025, according to the note.

Phase three trials for other cancer vaccines remain on schedule, and the Norovirus vaccine program has resumed after a temporary hold, but the broader vaccine pipeline is largely on hold unless new partnerships are secured, RBC said in the note.

RBC maintained a sector perform rating and $28 price target for Moderna.

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