BCA Research：市场对美国利率的预期存在误判

英为财情

2025/08/08

Investing.com - 据BCA Research分析师表示，市场对即将到来的利率下调的预测与持续存在的一年期通胀预期不相符。由Dhaval Joshi领导的策略师在一份报告中指出，投资者目前预计美联储在未来一年的会议中将降息超过一个百分点，部分原因是最近疲软的就业报告。根据BCA引用的彭博社和CME Group (NASDAQ:CME)数据，这将使借贷成本降至3.3%以下，而市场预计...

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据BCA Research分析师表示，市场对即将到来的利率下调的预测与持续存在的一年期通胀预期不相符。\n由Dhaval Joshi领导的策略师在一份报告中指出，投资者目前预计美联储在未来一年的会议中将降息超过一个百分点，部分原因是最近疲软的就业报告。\n根据BCA引用的彭博社和CME Group (NASDAQ:CME)数据，这将使借贷成本降至3.3%以下，而市场预计...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2928053\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investing_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BCA Research：市场对美国利率的预期存在误判</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBCA Research：市场对美国利率的预期存在误判\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-08 18:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2928053><strong>英为财情</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investing.com - 据BCA Research分析师表示，市场对即将到来的利率下调的预测与持续存在的一年期通胀预期不相符。\n由Dhaval Joshi领导的策略师在一份报告中指出，投资者目前预计美联储在未来一年的会议中将降息超过一个百分点，部分原因是最近疲软的就业报告。\n根据BCA引用的彭博社和CME Group (NASDAQ:CME)数据，这将使借贷成本降至3.3%以下，而市场预计...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2928053\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0772969993.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2928053","article_id":"2557289895","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"investing_news","url":"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2928053","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2557289895","pubTimestamp":1754648460,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"investing_news","name":"英为财情新闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Investing.com - 据BCA Research分析师表示，市场对即将到来的利率下调的预测与持续存在的一年期通胀预期不相符。由Dhaval Joshi领导的策略师在一份报告中指出，投资者目前预计美联储在未来一年的会议中将降息超过一个百分点，部分原因是最近疲软的就业报告。根据BCA引用的彭博社和CME Group 数据，这将使借贷成本降至3.3%以下，而市场预计一年后通胀率将保持在3.3%。这些评论出现之际，围绕美国利率走势的争论正在激烈进行。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"investing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0772969993.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1481011671.HKD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU1228905540.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC 2","LU1481011911.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","LU2506951875.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IE00BVYPNW00.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","LU1509826696.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC B","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4588":"碎股","LU2506951958.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - 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Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","LU0731783394.SGD":"Fidelity Global Dividend A-MINCOME(G)-SGD","IE00B3T34201.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1228905037.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"translate_title":"BCA Research: Markets Misjudged U.S. Interest Rate Expectations","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CME":1,"SH":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"SPY":0.78,"UPRO":0.6},"content_text":"Investing.com - 据BCA Research分析师表示，市场对即将到来的利率下调的预测与持续存在的一年期通胀预期不相符。\n由Dhaval Joshi领导的策略师在一份报告中指出，投资者目前预计美联储在未来一年的会议中将降息超过一个百分点，部分原因是最近疲软的就业报告。\n根据BCA引用的彭博社和CME Group (NASDAQ:CME)数据，这将使借贷成本降至3.3%以下，而市场预计一年后通胀率将保持在3.3%。\n分析师写道：\"这两个市场预期相互矛盾，因为如果通胀确实达到3.3%，那么美联储将无法实现如此规模的降息。\"\n\"而如果美联储能够实现如此规模的降息，那么通胀率不太可能达到3.3%。\"\n这些评论出现之际，围绕美国利率走势的争论正在激烈进行。一些美联储政策制定者，呼应美国总统特朗普的强烈要求，呼吁立即降息，认为这将有助于提振劳动力市场。\n然而，BCA分析师表示，目前尚不清楚7月份疲软的就业报告是由于招聘需求下降还是因为白宫打击非法移民导致可用工人减少。他们补充说，如果是前者，降息可能有效刺激支出和投资，但降息可能无助于解决工人供应下降的问题。\n同时，高于美联储2%目标的通胀被视为维持利率稳定的理由——许多美联储官员已经对特朗普激进关税议程对价格上涨的影响表示不确定。最近的经济数据表明，关税开始影响某些商品的成本，尽管整体通胀保持相对温和。\n在这种背景下，BCA分析师建议\"对债券保持中性配置，直到美国周期性失业率真正恶化\"，并建议做多美元兑匈牙利福林头寸，以\"利用美元的技术性反弹\"。\nBCA分析师表示：\"对于股票，鉴于最近几乎是直线上涨，我们将在8月暂停，然后在月底或9月重新评估我们的周期性配置。\"\n本文由人工智能协助翻译。更多信息，请参见我们的使用条款。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}