Novo Nordisk's (NVO) equity story appears "very challenging" as GLP1 compounders are expected to remain in the US, limiting cash-pay uptakes and leaving an uncertain outlook for the company's Wegovy weight loss drug, UBS said in a note Tuesday.
Most of the compounded GLP-1 agonist semaglutide, the main ingredient in Wegovy, are considered "legitimate" by US physicians and sourced from facilities regulated by the US Food and Drug Administration, according to the note.
The limited negative health impact from compounded GLP1 and fewer FDA staff under the Trump administration also appear to indicate "little FDA appetite" to intervene on compounding, UBS analysts said.
The brokerage also said it expects Ozempic sales in the US to decline and sees margin pressure from price erosion and limited near-term operating expenditure flexibility. Analysts projected 2025 to 2030 compound annual growth rate of 6.2% for sales and 7.3% for earnings per share.
UBS downgraded the stock to neutral from buy and lowered its price target to 340 Danish kroner ($52.76) from 600 Danish kroner.
Shares of Novo Nordisk were down more than 2% in recent trading Tuesday.
Price: 47.67, Change: -1.14, Percent Change: -2.34
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