While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Royale Home Holdings Limited (HKG:1198) share price up 22% in a single quarter. But the last three years have seen a terrible decline. In that time the share price has melted like a snowball in the desert, down 87%. So we're relieved for long term holders to see a bit of uplift. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
On a more encouraging note the company has added HK$143m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.
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Royale Home Holdings isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last three years Royale Home Holdings saw its revenue shrink by 33% per year. That means its revenue trend is very weak compared to other loss making companies. The swift share price decline at an annual compound rate of 23%, reflects this weak fundamental performance. Never forget that loss making companies with falling revenue can and do cause losses for everyday investors. There is a good reason that investors often describe buying a sharply falling stock price as 'trying to catch a falling knife'. Think about it.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
Royale Home Holdings shareholders are down 31% for the year, but the market itself is up 45%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 12% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Royale Home Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Royale Home Holdings (at least 2 which are significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course Royale Home Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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