Trump's Texas Gambit Ignites Nationwide Battle for House Control -- WSJ

Dow Jones
08/05

By Olivia Beavers, Meridith McGraw and John McCormick

WASHINGTON -- President Trump's high-stakes push to create more Republican House seats and keep the majority from flipping to Democrats has erupted into a cross-country fight, prompting the exodus of Democratic state lawmakers from Texas and leading blue-state governors to hatch their own plans.

Both parties are now racing to remake congressional lines in a slew of mid-decade redistrictings, breaking with traditional once-a-decade changes and injecting further uncertainty into what is expected to be a down-to-the-wire fight for control of the House in 2026.

Texas is at the center of GOP gerrymander efforts after Trump successfully lobbied Republican Gov. Greg Abbott to call a special session to redraw the lines of the Lone Star State. While some Texas Republicans initially signaled they were reluctant to consider the idea of even two additional seats, Trump persuaded Abbott to go for a Hail Mary approach by attempting to win five more.

State lawmakers moved ahead with a special session Monday, but Democrats' absence blocked a quorum, putting off a vote on the new maps for now.

Trump and his allies are looking at other states as well, including Ohio, Florida, Indiana and Missouri, to squeeze out more seats. Democrats are vowing to retaliate by potentially reshuffling lines in Democratic-run states such as California, New York and Illinois.

"If Republicans are willing to rewrite these rules to give themselves an advantage, then they are leaving us no choice," New York's Democratic governor Kathy Hochul said at a press conference Monday, where she was joined by Democrats from Texas. "We must do the same."

Republican state House Speaker Dustin Burrows said Democrats "shirked their responsibilities under the direction and pressure of out-of-state politicians and activists who don't know the first thing about what's right for Texas." Abbott said he has ordered local law-enforcement officials to arrest and return to the state capitol any absent Democrats they locate.

The GOP effort would dramatically alter the lines in Texas, which currently are aimed more at protecting incumbents rather than targeting Democrats. They were intended to last until after the 2030 Census, when states would typically set new lines. Trump won 56% of the Texas statewide vote in 2024, but the GOP won almost two-thirds of the state's 38 congressional districts.

Texas Democrats left the state Sunday in a move to delay the vote set for this week. Such tactics in the past have ultimately failed.

Republicans currently have a narrow 219 to 212 majority in the U.S. House. The redrawing in Texas and other states could broaden the possible GOP map but also push incumbents into more competitive races, and Democrats' countermoves could offset gains.

Trump spoke with the Texas governor in June about drawing up a new map, and his political operatives were in contact with Republican lawmakers to answer questions about redistricting plans. It is Abbott who has the authority and final call to move forward with the redistricting. And he is doing so after Trump and his team called and emphasized it was a priority, according to people familiar with the matter.

"Texas will be the biggest one and that'll be five," Trump said last month about the redistricting effort. "But we have a couple of other states where we'll pick up seats also."

Trump has a lot at risk if Democrats win back the House. A GOP loss would all but ensure expansive congressional oversight investigations by Democrats in the final two years of his administration and bring to a screeching halt any action on his legislative priorities. Some top Republicans have repeatedly predicted Trump would face a third impeachment inquiry with Democrats in power.

"We gotta make sure that the Republicans keep the House majority. We can't have the president impeached, which is what the Democrats would do on day one," House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) said earlier this year.

Trump is also actively involved in recruitment efforts and intervening early with endorsements to head off messy GOP primary fights in the House and Senate, which could soak up money and energy ahead of general elections. In past cycles, Republicans botched some races by nominating contentious candidates backed by Trump that lost winnable races.

The new map in Texas released last week creates five new districts, and four with majority-Hispanic voting populations. But that is a gamble for the party to assume these voters' increased support for Trump will transfer over to the party more broadly, especially with past elections revealing that Hispanic voters will split their ticket.

"Now the bet Republicans are making is, in the South Texas districts, that the Tejano vote for Trump is going to be a Republican vote. That's a big gamble," said Karl Rove, a Republican strategist. "It may work in the next election, and it may work when you've got a candidate like Gov. Abbott and a Democrat who you can't even remember their name, running for governor, but it may not work beyond that."

An analysis by Cook Political Report found that while five incumbent Democrats are being pushed into new districts that Trump would have won by at least 10 points in 2024, softening of Hispanic support for Republicans could complicate GOP prospects. Cook said Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez looked to have the best shots at hanging on.

Some Republicans are privately warning the changes could make some of their members more vulnerable down the line, particularly if another blue wave comes. Traditionally, the House flips in the midterms away from the party in the White House. And despite public projections of confidence about keeping the House, privately multiple House Republicans admit they are concerned about their chances of retaining control.

The shots fired in Texas quickly spread around the country. In New York, Hochul said Democrats would soon begin crafting legislation to amend the state constitution to allow the creation of new maps in time for the 2028 elections.

Democratic governors like Gov. Gavin Newsom of California and Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois, both possible presidential contenders in 2028, are also now central figures in the fight. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.) traveled to Texas over the weekend to rally against the redistricting plan.

"They're not screwing around. We cannot afford to screw around either. We have got to fight fire with fire," said Newsom, who plans to ask voters to back a new map in a special session this November.

Pritzker, who had been in conversation with Texas state lawmakers since late June about their possible exit, called the decision to flee to Illinois and other states a "righteous act of courage." Illinois is one of the most gerrymandered in the country -- with just three of 17 House seats held by the GOP in a state where Trump won 44% of the 2024 vote.

"To run to states like New York and Illinois to protest redistricting is kind of like running to Wisconsin to protest cheese. It's just kind of outrageous," Abbott said on Fox News.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee, told reporters at a Democratic Governors Association meeting on Friday in Wisconsin that leaders in his party who can remake maps in their states should do so if the courts don't stop Texas.

"It is a terrible spot we're in as a country, but not responding is going to make it even worse," he said.

Write to Olivia Beavers at Olivia.Beavers@wsj.com, Meridith McGraw at Meridith.McGraw@WSJ.com and John McCormick at mccormick.john@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 04, 2025 21:00 ET (01:00 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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