0921 ET - Economists at JPMorgan look back at revisions to official BLS payroll numbers over the decades. They find that despite the head-spinning downward revisions of 258,000 in May and June that landed in the July jobs report, revisions have not been rising over time, on average. Revisions have generally declined since the 1990s, they write, with exceptions around moments of disruption like Covid-19 and the 2008 financial crisis. Revision patterns do tend to be persistent, JPMorgan finds, meaning that they tend to come in strings of positive or negative numbers. But these patterns aren't typically correlated to the business cycle, JPMorgan's team finds. "While we always prefer smaller revisions, the payroll ones are usually considerably smaller than other key high-frequency indicators," JPMorgan writes. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 15, 2025 09:21 ET (13:21 GMT)
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