Lynch Group Holdings (ASX:LGL) is seeing improving trends into the second half of fiscal year 2025 with guidance above the top end of the range, but with strong support for HasFarm AU$2.245 per share cash offer, it may miss out on the cyclical upswing as a listed entity, Jarden said in a Wednesday note.

The firm notes the board has recommended the bid with about 39% shareholder support, and shares are set to trade near the offer price as the in-line fiscal year 2025 result takes a back seat.

The investment firm shared that headline numbers were solid, with revenue of AU$430.5 million in line with 7% group growth guidance, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of AU$43.2 million exceeding expectations, and net profit after tax and amortization of AU$10.2 million meeting forecasts.

Jarden sees key risks as new competition, demand shocks, agricultural and geopolitical factors, customer concentration, and VdB acquisition integration.

The investment firm maintained Lynch Group's overweight rating and an AU$2 price target.