Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) is expected to see accelerated earnings and adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) growth starting fiscal year 2026 despite a weak fiscal year 2025 and limited upside due to its premium valuation, Jarden said in a Monday note.

The investment firm shared that fiscal year 2026 will be a key turning point, with a projected 10.8% AFFO compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2028 following a weak 2025 marked by a 25% AFFO decline and impairments, with the stock's AFFO multiple well above peers, limiting upside potential.

The firm shared three key takeaways that fiscal year 2025 was a reset with weaker results and write-downs, growth is expected to accelerate from fiscal year 2026 despite downside risks from high expectations and development challenges, and AFFO remains the key valuation metric as the stock trades at a premium with consensus yet to adjust.

The investment firm maintained Mirvac Group's neutral rating while lowering its price target to AU$2.40 from AU$2.45.