According to Glassnode data, the daily transaction fees on the BTC network (14-day SMA) recently dropped to 3.5 BTC, marking the lowest level since late 2011. The decline usually suggests a lack of demand and could be hinting at a price drop in the foreseeable future.

Bitcoin may retrace further to test the 100-day EMA in the $111,000-$112,000 range if the rejection at this level indicates a breakdown in short-term support. In technical analysis, the failure to hold above the 50 EMA frequently serves as a bearish trigger since it indicates that buyers are becoming weaker in the face of increasing sell pressure.

Next Bitcoin battle

The next logical support test for Bitcoin may occur at the 100 EMA, as its inability to recover this level now suggests greater market vulnerability. Similar to corrections in previous cycles, the market may face more intense downside pressure if this level also fails. 

With momentum moving in favor of sellers, the consolidation phase between $120,000 and $116,500 has been invalidated from a structural standpoint. Additionally, patterns of trading volume show a decline in buyer activity, with no notable inflows to offset the deteriorating technical picture.

From correction to bear market

As market momentum has cooled, the RSI has been steadily declining, suggesting that the current correction may continue. Market confidence would be shaken by a decline toward the 100 EMA, which could also lead to wider altcoin weakness.

The $111,000 zone, however, becomes a crucial test for the market as a whole if it fails. Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal point in its history. The market will be closely observing, a recovery might restore confidence, but a more severe decline toward the 100 EMA might signal a longer corrective phase.