By Joe Hoppe

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week Sept. 8-12 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The macro mood is mixed as investors brace for crucial U.S. economic data, which is expected to confirm the door is open for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Friday's nonfarm payroll data came in significantly softer than expected, raising hopes for more and greater Fed interest rate cuts and weakening the U.S. dollar, which will boost the purchasing power of key commodity currencies like the Brazilian real.

Thursday's U.S. Consumer Price Index data is the most important focus point of the week, and will confirm whether the Fed can cut rates. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, it would spark concerns of stagflation in the U.S. economy, hurting risk assets and agricultural commodity markets.

Meanwhile on the weather front, U.S. forecasts are for warm and dry temperatures, great for the corn harvest but bearish for soybean crops. The driest areas of Illinois and Indiana will see little respite, with drought conditions expanding and river levels falling, Peak Trading analysts said in a note.

New U.S. corn export sales were strong for a sixth consecutive week. Still, China hasn't bought any new soybeans.

Seasonal demand for grains and oilseeds will likely stay relatively subdued until early October. Any short-term rallies will be difficult to sustain, given limited export prospects at this time of year, good weather and remaining supply ahead of a record harvest.

Chicago wheat futures are up 0.6% at $5.22 a bushel on Monday, while corn is up 0.1% at $4.19 a bushel. Soybean prices are flat at $10.27 a bushel.

SOFT COMMODITIES: Agricultural softs have broadly fallen over the past week on trade uncertainty with coffee, sugar and cocoa prices slipping in thin, volatile trading.

Arabica coffee futures have slid on week but are significantly higher on month, driven by U.S. import tariffs on Brazilian products. The 50% tariffs announced July 30 are likely to result in additional shortages, Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

The U.S. now has to source its coffee elsewhere, and Brazilian agricultural agency Conab has explicitly warned that the U.S. will find it difficult to replace Brazilian coffee with other suppliers, Commerzbank added.

Despite a decline in the year to date, cocoa prices remain historically elevated, supported by issues in powerhouse producers Ghana and Ivory Coast.

Sugar prices meanwhile have been pressured lower on week by expectations of robust Brazilian output, with a greater share of sugarcane directed towards sugar mills, BMI analysts said in a note. Favorable monsoon rains in India and strong production prospects in Thailand mean expectations for the harvest are strong, which will continue to weigh on prices through 2025, BMI said.

On Monday, cocoa is down 2.6% at $7,276 a metric ton, while coffee is up 2.5% at $3.83 a pound. Sugar is up 0.4% at $0.16 a pound.

Write to Joe Hoppe at joseph.hoppe@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 08, 2025 11:41 ET (15:41 GMT)

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