Financial Bubbles Happen Less Often Than You Think -- Journal Report

Dow Jones

09/08

Bitcoin has been trading in the $74,000-to-$124,000 range this year. "Financial Bubbles Happen Less Often Than You Think," at 10 a.m. ET on Sept. 8, misstated the range as $135,000-to-$162,000.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 09, 2025 11:31 ET (15:31 GMT)

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Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Financial Bubbles Happen Less Often Than You Think -- Journal Report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFinancial Bubbles Happen Less Often Than You Think -- Journal Report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-08 22:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n  By William Goetzmann \n</p>\n<p>\n  Bubbles loom large in our historical understanding of the financial markets. \n</p>\n<p>\n     They are memorable. They are colorful. They are scary. They raise questions about investor psychology and the madness of crowds. In good times, we worry if we're going to be caught in the next big bubble. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Looking at financial bubbles since 1790, however, we find that they are much rarer than their presence in the public imagination -- and not necessarily purely negative. They sometimes set the stage for major changes in people's worldviews, upending old ideas about the possibilities and limitations of business. Sometimes bubbles remake society itself, as all that investor money funds technological advances that change the world. \n</p>\n<p>\n     In my research on more than a century of global stock-market returns, I looked for how often bubbles occur. I defined them as a rapid doubling of stock prices followed by a crash that gave back all or more of the gains over the next one year or the next five years. Looking at all of those possible five-year periods, bubbles only happened in less than one-half of 1% of them. \n</p>\n<p>\n     But people don't perceive that bubbles occur that infrequently. In research I've done with Robert Shiller and Dasol Kim, we conducted monthly surveys of U.S. investors over the past 25 years, asking about potential market crashes. Typically, they put the odds of a catastrophic crash in the next six months at 10% to 20% -- much greater than history suggests. (Granted, the financial crisis of 2008-09 happened during our sample period and understandably terrified most savers.) \n</p>\n<p>\n     There have been a few seemingly catastrophic days when the market dropped precipitously. But not as many as you might think. Since 1887, there have been just four cases where the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped by more than 10% in a single day -- and two of those were during the big crash of 1929. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The story of American bubbles and spectacular crashes might lead one to think that the stock market is a perilous place, best left to experts or those with cast-iron stomachs. However, one of the biggest mistakes an investor can make is to rely on a handful of colorful historical episodes and ignore the long intervals in between: the sequence of quiet gains that stock markets have made over the decades and centuries they have existed. A statistician will tell you that the smaller your sample of data, the less reliable it is for forecasting -- particularly when the sample is chosen particularly because it is interesting. \n</p>\n<p>\n     And, in fact, researchers found that since 1900, a long-term U.S. investor who stuck with a diversified stock portfolio in global markets earned returns of about 9.5% a year -- despite the crash of 1929, the Great Depression, the single-day loss of more than 20% on the S&amp;P in 1987, the bursting of the dot-com bubble or the Covid meltdown. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Into new territory \n</p>\n<p>\n     The first stock bubble in U.S. history happened much earlier than any of those famous crashes, though -- in fact, it occurred nearly 200 years before the great plummet in 1929. \n</p>\n<p>\n     It had to do with the Louisiana territory, which was still in French hands. The crown chartered a company -- Compagnie des Indes, or Mississippi Company -- to develop the vast chunk of land. In 1719, shares in the enterprise started soaring, rising by more than 1,000% in a few months. Investors large and small jumped at the opportunity to buy into the economic promise of the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FNCSF\">North American</a> continent. \n</p>\n<p>\n     It wasn't just the first stock bubble in the U.S. -- it became the first international stock phenomenon, too. Across Europe, imitators rushed to offer shares in similar companies, looking to create manias of their own. The good times didn't last long, though. In mid-1720, all of those bubbles burst. The Compagnie des Indes survived, as did some other upstart firms. Many didn't. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Obviously, it was a cautionary tale: For the first time, people realized that stock markets could wipe out a lot of riches that existed on paper. But investors took away a different lesson, too: For all the risk, stock markets could make anyone very wealthy indeed. The term \"millionaire\" was coined during the craze. Even though it ended in disaster, stock investing became much more popular after the Mississippi bubble. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Black Monday 1929 \n</p>\n<p>\n     America's most famous stock-market crash centered on Oct. 28, 1929 -- \"Black Monday.\" Although stocks had been around a long time, equity investing had been in a lull for some time before the Roaring '20s. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The economic consequences of that disastrous bubble are very well known. But the 1920s stock markets had a lesser-known -- but just as massive -- effect on American society. All that investor money enabled big developments in automobiles, air travel, home appliances and much more. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Consider the Radio Corp. of America, or RCA. In the 1920s, the company led a communications revolution, creating radio broadcast networks and working to make radios and phonographs the new hearths of the American home. Its price matched its promise -- at first. RCA shares, which stood at $43 in January 1926, reached a peak of $568 in September 1929. Then came the crash -- and by 1932 the stock had plummeted to $15. \n</p>\n<p>\n     An online crash \n</p>\n<p>\n     There were some serious booms and crashes in between 1929 and the end of the 20th century. Most notably, we faced the single worst day in U.S. stock-market history on Oct. 19, 1987, when the S&amp;P 500 dropped 20.4%. But one of those crashes -- related to the late 1990s dot-com bubble -- had uncanny parallels to the 1920s bubble. Like that earlier market frenzy, the dot-com bubble was inspired by seismic changes in technology that promised to transform the world. \n</p>\n<p>\n     New technology stocks, in fact, had their own market, the Nasdaq -- a modern, maverick dealer network catering to upstart companies. It attracted Apple, Microsoft, Oracle, Cisco Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>.com, some of the biggest movers in the tech revolution. \n</p>\n<p>\n     When the dot-com bubble burst in March 2000, the Nasdaq fell nearly 78% from its peak. Many of the era's highest fliers plunged more than 90%, and vast swaths of dot-coms disappeared. The ones that survived, though, helped spearhead a radical tech revolution that is still changing our economic, personal and social lives today. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The online revolution even led to a new type of money. Bitcoin was the invention of the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto: a communal, decentralized digital currency intended as an alternative to a centralized and apparently vulnerable financial system. By the end of 2014, bitcoin had soared from single-digit dollar values to a peak near $1,000, then crashed below $320. As of 2025, bitcoin trades in the $135,000-to-$162,000 range -- roughly 135 to 160 times its 2014 lows, although not quite 100 times its price at the 2014 peak. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Is it possible to avoid bubbles? Guessing in real time whether a stock-market boom will collapse is notoriously difficult. But maybe we can turn to the latest investment rage, a revolutionary new technology that promises to change just about everything in society. AIs are trained -- in theory -- on the sum of all the knowledge on the web. Surely they'll be able to figure out the next time we're headed for a fall -- provided they don't get smart and autonomous enough to exploit the market to their own ends. \n</p>\n<p>\n     William Goetzmann is Edwin J. Beinecke professor of finance and management studies at the Yale School of Management. He can be reached at reports@wsj.com. \n</p>\n<pre style=\"white-space: pre\">\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  September 08, 2025 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0256863902.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","article_id":"2565687876","we_media_id":"106","thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2565687876","pubTimestamp":1757340000,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"Dow Jones","introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"summary":"Bubbles loom large in our historical understanding of the financial markets.They are memorable. 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Sometimes bubbles remake society itself, as all that investor money funds technological advances that change the world.And, in fact, researchers found that since 1900, a long-term U.S. investor who stuck with a diversified stock portfolio in global markets earned returns of about 9.5% a year -- despite the crash of 1929, the Great Depression, the single-day loss of more than 20% on the S&P in 1987, the bu","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0256863902.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3SWFQ91.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) INC","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","MSFT":"微软","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","IE000ITXATA3.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) ACC","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU1803068623.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE \"AH1\" (USDHDG) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","ORCL":"甲骨文","LU0784385840.USD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A2 USD","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","MACW.SI":"APPLE 3xLongSG261006","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","CSCO":"思科","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0302445910.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU1989773731.SGD":"CPR Invest - Education A2 Acc SGD-H","LU2097829019.USD":"AZ EQUITY - BORLETTI GLOBAL LIFESTYLE \"AI\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU0345774391.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF AMERICAN FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","SG9999014575.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USDHDG) INC","AAPL":"苹果","USAW.SI":"AMZN 3xLongSG261006","LU0345774631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF AMERICAN FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2317271919.USD":"BGF FUTURE CONSUMER \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFXG0V08.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"B\" (USD) ACC","AMZN":"亚马逊","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","LU0426412945.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"金融泡沫发生的频率比你想象的要低——期刊报告","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"CSCO":0.9,"MACW.SI":0.6,"MSFT":0.9,"ORCL":0.9,"USAW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"Bitcoin has been trading in the $74,000-to-$124,000 range this year. \"Financial Bubbles Happen Less Often Than You Think,\" at 10 a.m. ET on Sept. 8, misstated the range as $135,000-to-$162,000. \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  September 09, 2025 11:31 ET (15:31 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":true,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}