AMD faces uncertainties around semiconductor exports to China, but its business outlook remains promising, HSBC's Frank Lee says.

AMD shares rose 3% in overnight trading.

He reckons AMD won't be able to resume MI308 exports to China in 2H, given Beijing's pushback against U.S. chips. Lee lowers AMD's 2025 AI GPU revenue projection from $8.30 billion to $7.30 billion--still 7% higher than consensus forecasts. The analyst points to the expected MI355 ramp-up in 2H and thinks the market underestimates AMD's pricing potential.

AMD could do well in 2026, with the planned launch of the MI400 GPUs. HSBC also forecasts robust growth in non-AI segments like traditional servers. It lowers the target price to $185.00 from $200.00 while maintaining a buy rating.