By Steven M. Sears

Walmart's stock appears poised to rise to a record high price.

The stock is hovering around $100 as the five-, 20-, 50-, and 100-day simple moving averages are settling into support around $98. During the past 52 weeks, Walmart stock has traded from $77.28 to $105.30.

Though a weakening job market no doubt bolsters the appeal of the company's focus on helping shoppers buy more for less, the key determinant to the stock's trajectory is likely its earnings report in late November.

Walmart's third-quarter financial report from last year marked the start of a strong rally, with shares gaining about 23% to a record $105 in mid-February. The stock went on to close as high as $103 in August, but both times investors pushed the price lower.

The stock is performing well this year, but many investors have likely missed the convergence of its technical factors, as Wall Street is increasingly focused on the Federal Reserve's Sept. 16-17 meeting, where a decision to lower interest rates is widely expected to be made.

Lower rates would presumably be interpreted, at least initially, as positive for stocks. But it is also likely that a rate cut prompts investors to shift their focus from macroeconomic concerns, which are generally traded with indexes and exchange-traded funds, to stocks that benefit from challenging economic conditions.

Just recently, for instance, U.S. government data indicated that the U.S. jobs market was weak. Only 22,000 nonfarm jobs were created in August, well below investor expectations of about 75,000 jobs. In July, 79,000 jobs were created.

If John and Jane Doe are worried about jobs, or struggling to find work, they will try to maximize their spending dollars at retail stores. Walmart thrives in such conditions, especially as the company is increasingly executing well with online sales and deliveries of groceries and other household items.

In my experience, at least, it is often easier to find better prices on Walmart's site than it is on Amazon.com's. Amazon often displays prices that are sharply higher for items one day than another. Walmart seems to exert iron control over its online prices, as in its retail stores.

You could simply buy Walmart shares to take advantage of the trend, of course. Options-centric investors can consider selling a put option and creating a call option spread -- buying one call and selling another with a higher strike but same expiration. The strategy pays investors for agreeing to buy Walmart stock at a lower price, and positions them to profit if the stock behaves as expected around earnings.

With the stock at about $102, investors could sell the December $100 put for about $3.30. At the same time, they could buy the December $105 call and sell the December $115 call for a total cost of about $2.90. If the stock advances, investors keep the put premium.

The call spread has a maximum profit of $7.10 if the stock is at $115 or higher at expiration. If the stock is above $100 at expiration, the put premium is kept.

Walmart has just gained the support of one of Wall Street's most influential banks. Goldman Sachs added the stock to its conviction list, which highlights its best investment ideas. The bank told clients that Walmart could gain market share as retailers confront higher costs due to tariffs.

Walmart also has a tool that few competitors can use to offset gross margin pressures: fast, growing digital advertising revenue, which will likely become an important source of revenue.

If these economic and financial forces continue converging, Walmart's stock seems poised to thrive.

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September 12, 2025 21:31 ET (01:31 GMT)

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