Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
2025/09/15

The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0607 GMT - Spending on coal mines in China rose by much more than spending on other kinds of mines there in the first half of the year, Citi analyst Ephrem Ravi says in a note. Ravi estimates coal-mining capital expenditure in China rose by 14% year-over-year in the first six months of 2025. By comparison, overall mining capex in China rose by 3.4% over the same period, he says. Ravi points to China's continued reliance on coal as its dominant energy source, despite an ongoing shift to lower-carbon energy. He also notes that 2H spending will be a more critical read on China's coal investments, given 1H typically only accounts for a third of the country's annual coal capex. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0552 GMT - Merdeka Copper Gold is poised to realize value from the listing of subsidiary Merdeka Gold Resources on the Indonesia Stock Exchange on Sept. 23, Maybank Sekuritas Indonesia analysts say in a research report. The subsidiary's flagship asset, Pani Gold Project in Indonesia's Gorontalo, has 7.0 million ounces of gold resources and earnings could reach around $106 million in 2026, the analysts estimate. Backed by integrated heap leach and carbon-in-leach infrastructure, the project's total peak processing capacity is 19.0 million tons a year. The brokerage raises the stock's target price to IDR2,800.00 from IDR2,400.00 after lifting its long-term gold price forecast to $2,800/oz from $2,600/oz. Shares are 0.8% lower at IDR2,510.00. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0313 GMT - With IGO's only remaining operated asset, Nova, approaching the end of its life in late 2026, pressure is rising for the miner to justify its roughly A$80 million of corporate costs, Jarden analysts Ben Lyons and Adam Bennett say in a note. They reckon its unlikely IGO will be generating significant cash in FY 2026, even at a forecast US$900/metric ton spodumene price. They question whether the miner might consider an acquisition, although point out its CEO "was skeptical in his result commentary about the value of inorganic growth." They also say that lithium acquisitions in particular are complicated by requirements under IGO's joint venture with Tianqi Lithium. Jarden keeps an overweight rating on IGO. It trims its target to A$4.84 from A$4.88. IGO is up 2.3% at A$4.44. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0203 GMT - The Anglo American-Teck Resources merger is likely to succeed, Jefferies analysts say following gains in the shares of both miners. The combined market cap of Anglo and Teck rose by roughly $8.0 billion last week following the deal, structured as a merger of equals. "The consequence of this is that Anglo has become more difficult to acquire" for potential rival suitors, say the analysts. They anticipated BHP might again bid for Anglo had the deal depressed its share price. "This is a unique deal due to a controlling shareholder at Teck, Investment Canada considerations, and substantial synergies between assets in Chile," the analysts say. "But the market cap uplift of both companies may send a message to the industry that smart M&A can be an immediate positive for share prices of all companies involved." (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 15, 2025 04:20 ET (08:20 GMT)

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