AI行业面临8000亿美元收入缺口，万亿投资回报堪忧

金十数据

09/23

人工智能公司如OpenAI已迅速公布投入数万亿美元建设数据中心的计划，但在展示如何获得足够收入以覆盖所有这些开支方面则进展缓慢。如今，咨询公司贝恩（Bain & Co.）估计，这一收入缺口可能远比此前理解的更为巨大。贝恩在其周二发布的年度《全球科技报告》中表示，到2030年，AI公司需要合计2万亿美元的年收入，才能为满足预期需求所需的计算能力提供资金。但贝恩预测，由于ChatGPT等服务的货币化...

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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250923134738a730db72&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00B19Z8W00.USD","symbol_name":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250923134738a730db72&s=b","article_id":"2569769707","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250923134738a730db72&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, 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Co.）估计，这一收入缺口可能远比此前理解的更为巨大。贝恩在其周二发布的年度《全球科技报告》中表示，到2030年，AI公司需要合计2万亿美元的年收入，才能为满足预期需求所需的计算能力提供资金。但贝恩预测，由于ChatGPT等服务的货币化努力落后于数据中心及相关基础设施的投资需求，它们的年收入可能比这一目标短缺8000亿美元。该报告势将引发关于AI行业估值和商业模式的进一步质疑。OpenAI的ChatGPT、谷歌的Gemini等服务的日益普及，以及全球各公司的AI投入，意味着对计算能力和能源的需求正在快速上升。但AI所带来的成本节约以及公司从AI中产生额外收入的能力，却未能跟上这一速度。“如果当前的规模定律持续生效，AI将日益对全球供应链构成压力，”贝恩全球科技业务主席大卫·克劳福德（David Crawford）表示。据彭博社报道，OpenAI每年亏损数十亿美元，并优先考虑增长而非盈利，但其确实预计到2029年实现现金流转正。贝恩报告未详细说明若AI公司到2030年仍未能实现盈利可能产生何种影响。根据彭博行业研究的数据，包括微软、亚马逊和Meta平台公司在内的最大科技公司，到下一个十年初，将其AI年度总支出增加至超过5000亿美元。OpenAI、DeepSeek等公司发布新模型，正在刺激对AI服务的需求，并推动整个行业加大投资。贝恩表示，到2030年，全球AI计算增量需求可能飙升至200吉瓦，其中美国将占一半。报告指出，虽然技术和算法的突破可能减轻负担，但供应链限制或电力供应不足可能阻碍进展。除了计算能力方面的支出，领先的AI公司还在产品开发上投入巨资。能够在有限指导下像人类一样执行多步骤任务的自主AI智能体是重点领域之一。贝恩估计，在未来三到五年内，企业预计将把高达10%的技术支出用于构建包括智能体平台在内的核心AI能力。除了AI服务，贝恩在其年度科技报告中表示，它预期量子计算等领域也将增长。报告称，这项新兴技术可能为金融、制药、物流和材料科学等行业释放2500亿美元的市场价值。尽管一些人期待出现单一的量子突破，但贝恩认为这将是一个渐进的过程：未来10年内在狭窄领域早期应用，并随着时间的推移实现更广泛的采用。贝恩表示，人形机器人正吸引资金并变得越来越普遍，但部署仍处于早期阶段，且严重依赖人工监督。这家咨询公司认为，商业成功将取决于生态系统的准备程度，早期试点机器人的公司将在行业中领先。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}