MW Brain drain? How Wall Street is reacting to $100,000 charge for H1-B visas

By Steve Goldstein

Program is popular with Amazon, Microsoft and Indian IT companies

U.S. President Donald Trump, accompanied by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick (L), takes a question from a reporter before signing executive orders in the Oval Office at the White House on September 19, 2025 in Washington, DC.

New Trump administration rules that will require a $100,000 fee for a type of visa used extensively in the technology industry brought fears of an exodus of talent that will sap the potential for growth.

President Donald Trump on Friday signed a proclamation restricting H1-B visa unless a hefty fee is paid. Confusion immediately was created on how the rules would work - Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick said an annual fee would be required, whereas the White House press secretary, Katherine Leavitt, said it would only be a one-time fee and only applied on new as opposed to existing workers.

   Top H1-B recipients, through 6/30/25 
   Amazon                                10044 
   Tata Consultancy Services             5505 
   Microsoft                             5189 
   Meta Platforms                        5123 
   Apple                                 4202 
   Google                                4181 
   Cognizant Technology Services         2493 
   JPMorgan Chase                        2440 
   Walmart                               2390 
   Deloitte                              2353 
   Data: 

The White House points out the share of IT workers with H1-B visas has increased from about 32% in 2003 to closer to 65% now. At the same time, many big tech companies are laying off American workers. The White House didn't name them but sister publication Barron's notes that Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft $(MSFT)$, Salesforce (CRM) and Intel $(INTC)$ each are big H1-B users that have engaged in layoffs.

The flip side however is that a lack of H1-B program may prompt companies simply to relocate operations to other countries with laxer immigration rules, like Canada, and also rob them of the high skills needed to advance productivity. It also comes as the Trump administration is moving to restrict international students.

"By making it very expensive for companies to attract foreign talent, and by forcing some international students to leave the country after graduation, the brain drain will weigh heavily on productivity. Investments in artificial intelligence are unlikely to offset the damage caused by the loss of human capital under restrictive immigration policies," said Atakan Bakiskan, economist at Berenberg, who says the long-term U.S. growth potential is now 1.5%, or lower, from 2% at the beginning of the year.

Commerzbank currency strategist Thu Lan Nguyen said the biggest significance is how tech companies that have been working closely with the Trump administration still are not immune from its policies. "It seems that no U.S. company is safe from erratic U.S. politics," she said.

As H-1B debate was picking up steam earlier in the year, economists at Goldman Sachs led by Jessica Rindels looked into the issue. They note that high-skilled immigrants patent at a faster rate than native inventors, in what has benefited their publicly-traded employers.

Academic research suggests each additional high-skilled immigration lowers the budget deficit by $75,000 over 10 years, they said.

Not every study has been positive - one suggested that, on average, for every H1-B visa agreed, companies in return reduce hiring by 1.5 worker.

-Steve Goldstein

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September 22, 2025 05:30 ET (09:30 GMT)

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