阿里云能耗10年提升10倍，AI收入空间巨大

易简财经

09/28

来源|雪球AI服务一、战略目标与产业背景在2025年云栖大会上，阿里云CEO吴泳铭明确宣布：到2032年，阿里云全球数据中心能耗规模将较2022年提升10倍，对应算力投入的指数级增长。这一目标基于两大判断：AI算力需求爆发：大模型训练所需的token消耗量每2-3个月翻倍，驱动算力需求年均复合增长率超30%（IDC数据）；基础设施卡位窗口期：参考微软Azure的智能云毛利率提升路径（2023年Q4...

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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250928181116a6a3ddfb&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1235294995.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250928181116a6a3ddfb&s=b","article_id":"2570493958","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250928181116a6a3ddfb&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, 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revenue","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6},"content_text":"来源|雪球AI服务一、战略目标与产业背景在2025年云栖大会上，阿里云CEO吴泳铭明确宣布：到2032年，阿里云全球数据中心能耗规模将较2022年提升10倍，对应算力投入的指数级增长。这一目标基于两大判断：AI算力需求爆发：大模型训练所需的token消耗量每2-3个月翻倍，驱动算力需求年均复合增长率超30%（IDC数据）；基础设施卡位窗口期：参考微软Azure的智能云毛利率提升路径（2023年Q4达42%），超前布局算力可抢占AI服务市场高地。二、实施可行性的三大支撑（1）资金保障体系资本开支规模：阿里计划追加3800亿元AI基础设施投资，若动用账面储备，总投入可达5000亿元，相当于再造1.5个当前规模的阿里云；现金流能力：媒体测算，仅经营现金流即可支撑年度AI开支，无需动用现有金融资产。（2）技术解决方案液冷技术突破：新一代磐久128超节点服务器采用整柜液冷设计，单柜功耗达350KW，通过并联冷板与漏液检测系统兼顾高密度与安全性；全栈能力构建：覆盖芯片（自研AI芯片）、超节点服务器、智算集群的垂直整合，降低单位算力能耗成本。（3）政策协同效应东数西算战略：张北、河源等可再生能源富集地区的数据中心布局，可缓解能耗增长与碳中和目标的矛盾；出海节点扩展：巴西、法国等新建数据中心将分散能源压力，提升全球算力调度效率。三、争议与风险点回报周期质疑：有观点认为AI应用落地速度可能滞后于算力投入，@金融骑士团 指出“外行领导布置KPI式模型开发”或影响转化效率；技术路径竞争：英伟达GPU供应受限背景下，自主芯片（如寒武纪思元系列）的实际性能仍需验证；行业对标差异：谷歌云23倍PS估值与阿里云当前投入期的盈利模式尚未完全匹配。四、机构与市场视角国信证券认为，10倍能耗计划将打开AI收入增长空间，预计2026-2028财年阿里云收入年复合增速达11%，利润率随海外扩张改善。但斌等投资人则强调，算力军备竞赛中，提前布局基础设施的龙头将获得业绩弹性。当前市场分歧体现在阿里股价波动，但恒生科技ETF的加仓趋势反映长期信心。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}