外媒：2nm芯片订单出现反转了

春雨科技说

09/28

全球半导体行业的目光正紧紧盯着2nm芯片制程的竞争，这场关乎未来科技主导权的较量，局势一度明朗，如今又起波澜。台积电作为芯片制造领域的领先者，在2nm工艺上投入了巨资研发，却意外经历了从"订单荒"到"产能被抢光"的戏剧性转折。一、台积电2nm良品率很高，具备大规模量产的条件台积电在2nm工艺上的投入可谓不遗余力，该工艺采用了全新的GAA晶体管架构，取代了沿用多年的FinFET结构。这一技术转变带来...

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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250928160954a6a3a8c5&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0868494708.USD","symbol_name":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250928160954a6a3a8c5&s=b","article_id":"2570843371","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250928160954a6a3a8c5&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, 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reversed","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"AAPL":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"MACW.SI":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDA":0.9,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"TSM":0.9},"content_text":"全球半导体行业的目光正紧紧盯着2nm芯片制程的竞争，这场关乎未来科技主导权的较量，局势一度明朗，如今又起波澜。台积电作为芯片制造领域的领先者，在2nm工艺上投入了巨资研发，却意外经历了从\"订单荒\"到\"产能被抢光\"的戏剧性转折。一、台积电2nm良品率很高，具备大规模量产的条件台积电在2nm工艺上的投入可谓不遗余力，该工艺采用了全新的GAA晶体管架构，取代了沿用多年的FinFET结构。这一技术转变带来了性能的显著提升：在相同功耗下，性能提升10%-15%；在相同性能下，功耗降低20%-30%。更令人瞩目的是，台积电在良率方面取得了突破性进展。据供应链消息，台积电2nm芯片的良品率已突破90%，远高于竞争对手三星的20%-40%良率水平。这一数字在芯片制造领域堪称出色，为大规模量产奠定了坚实基础。按照台积电的计划，其2nm芯片将于2025年下半年开始放量生产，初期月产能将达到4.5-5万片，到2026年更有望推升至超过10万片。为支持这一目标，台积电在本土建设了四座超级晶圆厂，占地超过90公顷。二、2nm成本暴涨，高通、苹果都采用3nm工艺然而，就在台积电技术不断突破的同时，一个严峻的问题出现了，那就是生产成本。据悉，台积电将2nm晶圆报价从3nm的2万美元提升至3万美元一片，涨幅高达50%。这一价格是常规4nm和5nm晶圆成本的两倍，让大多数客户难以承受。面对如此高昂的价格，芯片设计公司的态度出乎意料地冷淡。除了苹果、英伟达、英特尔等毛利率超过50%的企业外，其他厂商几乎无人问津。实际情况也确实如此，苹果的iPhone 17系列采用台积电第三代3nm工艺，高通骁龙8至尊版和联发科天玑9500也推迟了2nm计划，也采用的是台积电第三代3nm工艺。因为这些厂商发现，为15%的性能提升承担50%的成本上涨并不划算。更深入的分析表明，现有3nm芯片的性能已能满足绝大多数用户需求，从智能手机、笔记本电脑到中高端AI算力需求都出现了\"性能过剩\"的现象。这种\"够用就好\"的心态正在芯片市场蔓延，厂商们开始更理性地平衡性能与成本。三、2nm芯片产能已经被抢完就在业内认为台积电2nm工艺可能面临订单危机时，情况出现了戏剧性变化。台积电总裁魏哲家最近表示：\"做梦都没想到2nm的需求比3nm还多\"。有媒体报道称，台积电2026年的2nm产能已被五大厂商抢购一空。这些厂商分别是苹果、AMD、高通、联发科和英伟达。苹果抢2nm是为了A20系列芯片，高通要给第六代骁龙8至尊版使用，AMD生产最新CPU，联发科制造天玑新旗舰，而英伟达则瞄准最强AI芯片。这一变化背后的商业逻辑令人玩味，不过这也很好理解。这些芯片巨头本身毛利率较高，能够承受代工成本的上涨。并且2nm晶圆成本分摊到单个芯片上并不算高，按4.5万美元一片晶圆计算，能切出600多块手机芯片，单块成本约几百元，而最终芯片售价可达上千甚至几千元。更重要的是，行业竞争法则决定了厂商不得不跟进。一旦有竞争对手采用更先进的制程，其他厂商就必须跟随，否则产品就会失去市场竞争力，这种\"被迫跟进\"的现象在高端芯片市场尤为明显。正因为如此，有外媒才表示：台积电2nm芯片订单出现反转了。四、写在最后2nm芯片订单从\"无人问津\"到\"一抢而空\"的转变，揭示了半导体行业的发展规律。台积电的案例表明，在尖端芯片领域，技术领先性本身就是最大的竞争优势。尽管成本高昂，但芯片制造商和下游厂商都能通过价格传导机制将成本转嫁至终端消费者。这也解释了为什么台积电能够持续投入更先进制程的研发，因为只要能够制造出来，就不愁没有客户。目前，台积电已开始规划更先进的1.4nm制程，预计2028年投产。而半导体行业的技术竞赛仍在继续，2nm订单的变化只是这场漫长竞争中的一个小插曲。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}