By Megan Leonhardt

Economists expect the latest data to show that September proved to be another weak month for hiring in the private sector.

The monthly ADP National Employment Report for September is set to be released at 8:15 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect that the U.S. private employers added 50,000 jobs in September. That's down slightly from the 54,000 positions that ADP reported in August, with sectors such as leisure and hospitality and construction gaining ground despite the broader slowdown in hiring.

ADP's estimate of private employment growth has gained credibility in recent months, after the private report was quicker to pick up on the hiring slowdown in the wake of the announced Liberation Day tariffs than federal data. ADP's data also showed a modest pickup in hiring in July and August. Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller, for example, has previously said that he monitors employment from ADP and believes it has provided valuable insights into the labor market and cited the data in recent speeches.

The ADP report, which is based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 26 million U.S. employees, has generally not been considered to be a good predictor of the Bureau of Labor Statistics's payroll data, which include both public and private employment. The BLS employment data is also more board-based, surveying approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 631,000 individual worksites.

"The ADP data has never garnered the same attention from Wall Street economists and traders as the government reports have, perhaps because the BLS data offers a single, easy-to-understand number and because the ADP data does not consistently predict the initial estimate of monthly jobs data from the BLS," writes Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM US.

Yet he notes that attention should be paid to the ADP data because the report is based on the actual number of paychecks processed, rather than more variable survey responses and correlates strongly with BLS private-sector payroll revisions. While government statistics remain the "gold standard," Brusuelas says that the ADP data can help provide insight to trends in payroll levels and growth.

And in light of the government shutdown, the ADP data could be the only broad, national measure of job growth until BLS operations resume. The BLS told Barron's on Monday that it would "suspend data collection, processing, and dissemination" in the event of a shutdown, likely leading to delays in the release of key metrics such as the September payroll and employment data, as well as the Consumer Price Index.

While some economists expect to see a modest rebound in September payroll growth, the latest Conference Board consumer confidence index released Tuesday revealed that Americans remain pessimistic about labor conditions. The worsening job availability, as seen in the latest measure of relatively stagnant job openings, could signal a further rise in unemployment.

But that may take time to materialize in the data. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago published new labor market indicators last week that combine private sector data with official labor statistics. Chicago Fed researchers forecast that the real-time unemployment rate was 4.32% for the week ending on Sept. 13, 2025, which is unchanged from the August rate. The layoff rate was 2.09%, again unchanged from a month prior.

Write to Megan Leonhardt at megan.leonhardt@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 01, 2025 02:53 ET (06:53 GMT)

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