AI研报｜大摩：180天，从“掉队者”到“AI赢家”的惊天逆转

AI创智记

10/06

就在六个月前，华尔街还在为谷歌深深担忧。这家互联网巨头在AI浪潮的初期，似乎显得步履蹒跚：ChatGPT的横空出世让它的搜索霸主地位显得摇摇欲坠，微软凭借与OpenAI的联盟在云战争中步步紧逼，而一场漫长的反垄断诉讼更是如同达摩克利斯之剑高悬头顶。市场上弥漫着一种情绪：谷歌是否已经老去？其核心商业模式是否面临着结构性风险？国际顶级投行摩根士丹利在2025年10月2日发布了一份重磅研究报告：《约6...

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《约6...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251006194126a6aec25d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GOOGL","symbol_name":"谷歌A","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251006194126a6aec25d&s=b","article_id":"2573667674","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251006194126a6aec25d&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, 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Structural Question Marks to AI Winner in ~6 Months》报告的核心结论旗帜鲜明：谷歌已经成功地将市场的“结构性质疑”转化为“AI赢家的确定性”，这场华丽的逆转，仅仅花了大约180天。那么，这半年里究竟发生了什么？让摩根士丹利的态度发生了如此根本性的转变？一、阴霾散尽：压垮谷歌的“三座大山”正在移开报告指出，此前压制谷歌估值的三重主要压力已经显著缓解，甚至转化为动力。1、AI创新从“追随”到“引领”半年多来，谷歌通过Gemini系列模型的持续迭代和AI代理（AI Agent）体验的推出，有力回击了对其创新能力的质疑。报告认为，谷歌不再是AI竞赛的旁观者或追随者，而是已经成为核心领跑者之一。其AI技术已深度整合进搜索、广告、云服务等核心产品，并开始展现出提升用户体验和商业效率的巨大潜力。2、反垄断诉讼迎来“温和”结局美国司法部对谷歌的反垄断诉讼最终以一种“对谷歌相对有利”的方式达成和解。这消除了业务被强制分拆的最大不确定性，为管理层扫清了障碍，使其能更专注于AI时代的竞争。摩根士丹利认为，这一结果的积极意义远超市场预期。3、市场情绪与估值修复随着上述利空出尽，叠加AI成果显现，投资者的信心迅速恢复。曾经因担忧而逃离的资金开始重新审视谷歌的价值，其估值折扣也随之收窄。二、双轮驱动：搜索与云业务迎来AI增长新范式报告详尽分析了谷歌两大核心引擎——搜索和云业务在AI赋能下的新前景，认为其增长故事远未结束，而是刚刚开启新篇章。1、搜索业务：不是被颠覆，而是被增强市场最大的误判在于认为生成式AI会彻底颠覆传统搜索引擎。然而，谷歌的实践表明，AI正在让搜索变得更强大、更具价值。例如，通过“AI概述”（AI Overviews）等功能，谷歌能够直接生成答案，并智能整合购物、本地服务等信息，这反而提升了用户的搜索效率和信息获取深度。对于广告商而言，更精准、更富交互性的AI搜索意味着更高的转化率，这将驱动广告单次点击收入的增长。摩根士丹利预计，谷歌搜索收入增速将在2026年和2027年显著提升。2、谷歌云（GCP）：AI时代的核心基础设施这是谷歌打翻身仗的关键。报告揭示了几个强劲信号：惊人的订单积压：目前谷歌云平台拥有高达1080亿美元的未完成订单（backlog），这为其未来收入提供了极强的可见性。增长的“加速器”：基于此，摩根士丹利预测谷歌云业务在2026年的收入增长率有望达到惊人的39%，增速远超此前市场的保守预期。谷歌云正凭借其在AI计算领域的独特优势（如自研的TPU芯片），从亚马逊AWS和微软Azure手中抢夺更多市场份额。三、投资价值的重估：目标价大幅上调至270美元基于以上积极因素，摩根士丹利将对谷歌母公司Alphabet的股票评级维持在“增持”（Overweight），并将其目标价从之前的210美元大幅上调至270美元。这一价格反映了机构对谷歌AI驱动下盈利能力和增长潜力的重新定价。报告最后总结道，谷歌的案例是一个经典范例，展示了一家拥有强大技术底蕴、海量数据和雄厚财力的巨头，一旦全面聚焦，其爆发出的能量是何等惊人。市场的担忧已经从“谷歌能否在AI时代生存”转变为“谷歌将在AI时代获取多大的蛋糕”。在约6个月的时间里，谷歌完成了从“问题学生”到“优等生”的蜕变，正式确立了其作为本轮AI革命中不可争议的赢家地位。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}