0401 GMT - The current downturn in mineral sands appears to be "unprecedented in terms of its duration at the bottom, if in fact we are at the bottom," Barrenjoey analysts say in a note. Their remarks follow a site visit to miner Iluka's operations in Australia. The analysts say mineral sands prices and volumes seem to be still experiencing a downward swing, weighed by a weak Chinese housing market and higher Chinese output of both titanium feedstock and zircon. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0307 GMT - Capricorn Metals's strong start to FY 2026 bolsters Barrenjoey's bullish view of the Australian gold miner. Capricorn's 1Q output was 7% higher than Barrenjoey expected. Ore milled at Capricorn's Karlawinda Gold Project totaled 1.23 million tons in 1Q. Analyst Daniel Morgan highlights that annual mill throughput would be 4.8 million tons if this performance is matched over each of the next three quarters. That's higher than the mill's nameplate capacity of 4.0 million tons per year. "This supports our thesis that Capricorn in time will prove to be a 400,000 oz business, rather than the more conservative 300,000 oz/year business plan that is embedded in consensus forecasts," Barrenjoey says. Capricorn is Barrenjoey's preferred gold stock because it thinks this 30% extra production growth isn't priced in. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0245 GMT - BHP's proposed smelter and refinery expansion at Olympic Dam is essential for turning Copper South Australia into a more lucrative business that fits with its broader portfolio, Jefferies analysts say in a note. Olympic Dam, or OD, has averaged a return on capital employed of just 1.5% over the past five years, well below the returns in its other copper, iron-ore and coal businesses, they say. "The OD orebody quality is without question, but economic extraction has proved enigmatic," say the analysts. "In our view, capital injection of circa US$11 billion will elevate the province to a scale comparable with the South American assets in the BHP portfolio from both a production and returns perspective." BHP is expected to make a decision on the proposed expansion in 2028. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2329 GMT -- Right now, Northern Star Resources appears fairly valued. Longer term, it looks cheap, says Bell Potter. Northern Star is trading on a multiple of 7.7x enterprise value-to-Ebitda. That's above a five-year average of 6.1x and compares to a multiple of 6.6x for international peers. "We believe 7.7x today for a globally diversified gold producer, at the end of heavy capital investment in a rising gold price environment looks cheap in the context of a longer-term outlook," says Bell Potter. Northern Star is entering a period of "cash flow harvesting" in FY 2027, Bell Potter says. It retains a buy call on Northern Star and raises its price target by 44% to A$30.00 following a change of analyst to Regan Burrows. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2325 GMT -- For Electro Optic Systems, a A$108 million order for Remote Weapons System for the Australian Army's Land 400 Phase 3 vehicle kicks off what's likely to be a catalyst-rich six months. That's the view of Bell Potter, which rates the stock a buy. Analyst Baxter Kirk highlights several key events. They include more details from the EU's defense technical roadmap, which is scheduled for release ahead of the EU summit on Oct. 23-24. Electro Optic Systems could be awarded a A$50 million Slinger contract and A$20 million Remote Weapon Systems contract in 4Q 2025/1Q 2026, Bell Potter says. Then there is "the advancement of potential directed energy opportunities and the A$500 million R500 Middle East opportunity along the market development pipeline," Bell Potter says. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2323 GMT -- DigiCo Infrastructure REIT has the balance sheet to expand its SYD1 data center beyond 9 megawatts, Macquarie says. DigiCo Infrastructure REIT says the additional capacity will be available by mid-2026. As a result, its capex commitment rises to A$160 million-A$180 million in FY 2026, from A$100 million-A$120 million. "This is sufficiently covered by A$740 million of available liquidity (A$425 million cash/A$315 million undrawn capex facilities) with gearing of 35% at the low end of DigiCo Infrastructure REIT's 35-45% target," Macquarie says. It has an outperform call on DigiCo Infrastructure REIT and raises its price target by 6.7% to A$4.16/share. DigiCo Infrastructure REIT is up 1.7% at A$3.00 today. (david.winning@wsj.com)

1921 ET - Karoon Energy should rethink its share buyback program, Macquarie suggests. Karoon has approved the next US$25 million tranche of the buyback. "We believe it would be more prudent to pause the buyback program (e.g., go slow on the current US$25 million, and not extend the last remaining US$28 million of the US$125 million overall total program since inception)," Macquarie says. That view reflects Macquarie's declining oil price outlook, Karoon's valuation, and forward commitments that include extending the lift of its FPSO and rig work. Karoon also intends to hire a new CEO. "We have reduced assumed buybacks in 2H of 2025 to US$25 million," from US$40million, Macquarie says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2225 GMT -- Australian stocks are likely to edge higher at the open, with ASX SPI200 futures up by 0.1%. The market has mixed cues from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq rose 0.7% and the S&P 500 0.4%, while the Dow industrials fell 0.1%. Australian gold-mining shares will have a tailwind from a further rise in bullion prices, while oil prices are also higher, a boost for energy stocks. The price of iron ore, the major source of income for Australia's top miners, is flat in subdued trading because of China's Golden Week. Before the bell, Rio Tinto announced a US$733 million extension of the West Angelas iron-ore mine. Commonwealth Bank of Australia said ASB Bank, a New Zealand-based subsidiary, has settled a class action for NZ$135.6 million. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com)

2151 GMT - Good news keeps coming from Electro Optic Systems. Its latest contract win: a A$108 million order for Remote Weapons System for the Australian Army's Land 400 Phase 3 vehicle. Analyst John Lawlor says this contract has been in Electro Optic Systems' pipeline as an advanced project for some time. "The award finally allows Electro Optic Systems to get on with the manufacture commencing in 2025," says Ord Minnett. It had forecast revenue from the contract from FY 2026. The win takes Electro Optic Systems' order book to A$400 million. Ord Minnett says that "is an outstanding result given that at 31 December, 2024, it had fallen to a decade low of just A$136 million." It expects the company to achieve the upper end of its recently revised revenue guidance range of A$115 million-A$125 million. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2143 GMT - Monthly auto sales data in Australia help to cement Ord Minnett's bullish view of 4x4 parts retailer ARB's stock. New vehicles sales increased by 5.1% in September to 101,992 vehicles. Ord Minnett expects new vehicle sales will continue to trend upwards in FY 2026, after consistent declines in FY 2025. For ARB, sales of its key vehicles rose by 6.4% last month. Analyst James Casey says the outlook for ARB is positive with robust demand for its products, a healthy order book and new vehicles and products being released globally. "Longer term, new and refurbished stores, offshore expansion and strategic partnerships with OEM customers offers earnings growth," Ord Minnett says. It retains a buy call on ARB's stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 07, 2025 00:03 ET (04:03 GMT)

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