Options Corner: With Chipotle Stock On A Caloric Deficit, Now's The Time For A Bullish Pivot

Benzinga_recent_news

2025/10/08

While ranking among the most actively traded securities of the day, fast-casual restaurant operator Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) hasn't had much to cheer about. Since the beginning of the ...

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Since the beginning of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/10/48087503/chipotle-cmg-stock-deficit-contrarian-opportunity\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"benzinga_recent_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Options Corner: With Chipotle Stock On A Caloric Deficit, Now's The Time For A Bullish Pivot</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOptions Corner: With Chipotle Stock On A Caloric Deficit, Now's The Time For A Bullish Pivot\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-08 03:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/10/48087503/chipotle-cmg-stock-deficit-contrarian-opportunity><strong>Benzinga_recent_news</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While ranking among the most actively traded securities of the day, fast-casual restaurant operator Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) hasn't had much to cheer about. Since the beginning of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/10/48087503/chipotle-cmg-stock-deficit-contrarian-opportunity\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4504","symbol_name":"桥水持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/10/48087503/chipotle-cmg-stock-deficit-contrarian-opportunity","article_id":"2573993583","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2025/10/07/San-Francisco--Ca--Usa---May-1--2022-Chi.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/10/48087503/chipotle-cmg-stock-deficit-contrarian-opportunity","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2573993583","pubTimestamp":1759866840,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Although Chipotle has suffered from economic headwinds, a defensible business may see a positive reevaluation of CMG stock.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1035773651.USD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","LU2506951958.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) INC","YUM":"Yum Brands","LU1069347547.HKD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0950375773.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC A","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","MCD":"麦当劳","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU2506952170.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (USDHDG) INC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","CMG":"墨式烧烤","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU2065171402.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) INC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0823417653.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","LU1718418525.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Select Equity A (acc) SGD","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","LU2279689827.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income Sustainable A (mth) SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","BK4610":"咖啡茶饮","BK4566":"资本集团","LU2065169927.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","SGXZ51526630.SGD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc SGD","LU1721429741.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SMART FOOD \"CRH\" (USD) INC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H"},"translate_title":"期权角：由于Chipotle股票热量不足，现在是看涨转向的时候了","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CMG":1,"MCD":1,"YUM":1},"content_text":"While ranking among the most actively traded securities of the day, fast-casual restaurant operator Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) hasn't had much to cheer about. Since the beginning of the year, CMG stock has slipped 32%, a jarring contrast to the S&P 500, which is up 14% during the same frame. Blame the consumer economy, which has been struggling mightily amid rising costs and tariff-related strains. Still, the red ink may offer an attractive discount.\nTo be fair, Chipotle represents an awfully intrepid contrarian opportunity. In particular, the financial situation is enough to scare off most conservative investors. In the second quarter, the fast-casual eatery posted earnings that were in line with expectations but delivered sales that missed analysts' consensus target.\nWhat was problematic about the miss was that comparable restaurant sales decreased 4% year-over-year. So, while the overall sales tally increased 3% against the year-ago level, the performance largely stemmed from opening new stores. That's a riskier proposition because it masks underlying weaknesses in established units.\nStill, Chipotle arguably commands a defensible business. At the broadest level, the company champions health-oriented product offerings — generally aligning with behavioral shifts among young consumers. When drilling into specific corporate elements, Chipotle has enjoyed strong growth and popularity in digital sales.\nSure, the economy is still challenged and other food icons, such as McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD) and Yum! Brands Inc (NYSE:YUM), are underperforming the S&P 500. Even here, though, some evidence — such as lower-than-expected jobless claims — suggests that circumstances aren't as bad as initially thought.\nIn time, investors could readjust their expectations for CMG stock.\nAlthough CMG stock may look exceptionally ugly on the charts, it also presents a chance for the market to reevaluate the underlying proposition. Clearly, based on the economic conditions of high inflation and elevated borrowing costs, CMG didn't deserve to be priced above $60 per share. However, with the security in the $40 range, those prior adjustments require a recalculation.\nColloquially speaking, every security has a baseline personality. What makes CMG stock so intriguing, though, is that it's obviously well off from its baseline. Since roughly mid-June 2024, the equity is down about 37%. As such, investors will need to seriously consider whether CMG deserves to be this heavily discounted, especially as certain economic indicators appear to be moving in the positive direction.\nFurther, traders can look at the matter quantitatively. In the trailing 10 weeks, CMG stock has printed a 4-6-D sequence: four up weeks (defined as the return between Monday's open and Friday's close), six down weeks, with an overall downward trajectory. It's a relatively rare sequence, having only materialized 46 times on a rolling basis since January 2019.\nBased on the performance of past analogs, the median price of outcomes associated specifically with the 4-6-D sequence is expected to be choppy relative to CMG's baseline performance (or the aggregate performance of all outcomes in the dataset). However, the key point is that by the November monthly options chain, the \"sequential\" median price is expected to be above the aggregate median.\nLong story short, CMG stock is flashing an asymmetric risk-reward dynamic where the security would be expected to perform better than standard risk modeling would suggest.\nFrom the market intelligence above, the trade that arguably makes the most sense at this juncture is the 40.00/42.50 bull call spread expiring Nov. 21. This transaction involves buying the $40 call and simultaneously selling the $42.50 call, for a net debit paid of $119 (the most that can be lost in the trade).\nShould CMG stock rise through the second-leg strike price ($42.50) at expiration, the maximum profit is $131, a payout of just over 110%. Breakeven comes in at $41.19, which is a realistic threshold given that empirical projections coming off the 4-6-D sequence forecast a median price near $43 by the Nov. 21 expiration date.\nIndeed, the most aggressive speculator might consider looking at the 40/45 bull spread expiring on the same options chain. While the second-leg strike price is ambitiously high at $45, the breakeven for this transaction comes in at just under $42. Further, the max payout clocks in at over 151%.\nEither way, the overriding argument is that CMG stock might perform better than standard expectations call for due to buy-the-dip sentiments. As such, contrarian traders will want to keep Chipotle on their radar.\nThe opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.\nRead More:\nImage: Shutterstock","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}