By Nick Devor

Polymarket and Kalshi are fighting for dominance as prediction markets gain momentum across the globe. A few days after Polymarket announced a $2 billion partnership with the New York Stock Exchange, Kalshi said it was taking its platform to 140 countries thanks to a $300 million fund-raising round that values the company at $5 billion. The funding round, completed in August, was led by venture-capital firms Sequoia and Andreessen Horowitz, according to a press release, and included celebrity investors like comedian Kevin Hart and NBA player Kevin Durant. Coinbase Ventures, the venture capital arm of the global cryptocurrency exchange, is also an investor in the latest round. The investment signals a growing link between Kalshi and the crypto industry. Kalshi's head of crypto John Wang recently told crypto news site The Block that Kalshi would be integrated into "every large crypto application and exchange" within a year. Polymarket has long allowed international crypto traders to bet on its platform using stablecoins. Also this week, the New York Stock Exchange's parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, or ICE, announced a $2 billion partnership with Polymarket. "By combining ICE's institutional scale and credibility with Polymarket's consumer savvy, we will be able to deliver world-class products for the modern investor," Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said in a statement. Kalshi, despite operating in just the U.S. before today, handled more than 65% of global prediction market volume as of late September, according to data provider Dune, up from 1% a year earlier. Polymarket has been barred from operating in the U. S. -- though the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator of prediction markets, recently cleared the way for its stateside operation. Kalshi and Polymarket are an emergent threat to the U.S. online sports betting duopoly of DraftKings and FanDuel-parent Flutter, whose stocks are down 6% this week. By offering event contracts that pay out based on the outcomes of sporting events, prediction market platforms effectively allow sports betting nationwide, even in states where sports betting hasn't been legalized, like Texas and California. Since the event contracts are regulated by the CFTC, prediction markets circumvent regulations and taxes that sportsbooks are subject to in the individual states where they're licensed to operate. Global expansion comes with risks. Polymarket was recently banned in Colombia, and regulators in France, Switzerland, Belgium, Taiwan, and Singapore have shut off access to the prediction market as well. Kalshi is a comparable product to Polymarket and may run into similar trouble.

Write to Nick Devor at nicholas.devor@barrons.com

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October 10, 2025 14:35 ET (18:35 GMT)

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