Is the Stock Market Going to Crash in 2026? 2 Historically Flawless Indicators Paint a Clear Picture.

Motley Fool

2025/10/19

The Buffett indicator has accurately predicted past market downturns and is now at its highest level ever. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has predicted multiple market crashes and is now at its...

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2 Historically Flawless Indicators Paint a Clear Picture.","media":"Motley Fool","content":"<div>\n<p>The Buffett indicator has accurately predicted past market downturns and is now at its highest level ever.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has predicted multiple market crashes and is now at its...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/10/19/is-the-stock-market-going-to-crash-in-2026-2-histo/\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Stock Market Going to Crash in 2026? 2 Historically Flawless Indicators Paint a Clear Picture.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Stock Market Going to Crash in 2026? 2 Historically Flawless Indicators Paint a Clear Picture.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-19 19:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/10/19/is-the-stock-market-going-to-crash-in-2026-2-histo/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Buffett indicator has accurately predicted past market downturns and is now at its highest level ever.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has predicted multiple market crashes and is now at its...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/10/19/is-the-stock-market-going-to-crash-in-2026-2-histo/\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SH","symbol_name":"做空标普500-Proshares","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/10/19/is-the-stock-market-going-to-crash-in-2026-2-histo/","article_id":"2576075876","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F836677%2Frollercoaster.jpg&op=resize&w=165&h=104"],"rights":{"source":"fool_stock","url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/10/19/is-the-stock-market-going-to-crash-in-2026-2-histo/","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"","selectors":".main-contain, #article-page","filters":"#sticky-wrapper, .navigation, .article-page-end, .foot, .author-tagline, .author-inline, .footer, .soc-share, .wysiwyg, .related-content","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2576075876","pubTimestamp":1760873100,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"fool_stock","name":"Motley Fool"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"These stock market valuation metrics look ominous.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fool.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","GDP":"古德里奇","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","CAPE":"Shiller CAPE U.S. Equities ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4213":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产"},"translate_title":"2026年股市会崩盘吗？2个历史上完美无瑕的指标描绘了一幅清晰的画面。","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MESmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"CAPE":1,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.9,"IVV":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"GDP":1,"VOO":0.9,"OEF":0.6},"content_text":"The Buffett indicator has accurately predicted past market downturns and is now at its highest level ever.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has predicted multiple market crashes and is now at its second-highest level ever.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe best thing investors can do is be prepared for a potential market decline while focusing on the long term.\n\nYou've no doubt heard the phrase, \"What goes up can come down.\" This adage continually lurks in the background of the brains of many investors who have lived long enough. They know that the good times never keep rolling indefinitely.For now, the good times are rolling. All the major stock market indexes are near record highs. But is the stock market going to crash in 2026?Image source: Getty Images.Warren Buffett's favorite valuation indicatorOne big reason for investors to be worried relates to an indicator popularized by none other than Warren Buffett. The investing icon said in an article published by Fortune in 2001 that the ratio of total market capitalization to gross national product (GNP) was \"probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.\" This metric became known as the Buffett indicator, with gross domestic product (GDP) replacing GNP over time.Buffett said something else in that 2001 article that's haunting, though. He stated that if the ratio ever gets close to 200%, investors are \"playing with fire.\"History proves that the Oracle of Omaha was right. As Buffett noted in the Fortune article, the indicator that now bears his name approached 200% in 1999 and part of 2000. What happened next? The dot-com bubble burst, with the stock market (especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC)) beginning a multiyear decline.^IXIC data by YCharts.The Buffett indicator came close to 200% again in late 2022. Within a couple of months, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) peaked. A bear market soon ensued, with the S&P 500 falling more than 25% below its high at one point.^SPX data by YCharts.Guess what the Buffett indicator's level is right now? It's at an all-time high of 219%. Per Buffett's own words, investors are \"playing with fire.\"Robert Shiller's namesake indicatorBuffett isn't the only financial legend with a valuation metric bearing his name. Yale economics professor Robert Shiller co-developed the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, which became known as the Shiller CAPE ratio.This indicator averages inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years for a company or a stock market index. The idea is that looking at a longer period provides a better perspective that smooths out the impact of economic cycles.The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has been eerily prescient in predicting major stock market declines. Note the spike in 1929 on the chart below. It preceded the infamous stock market crash in October of that year. The highest value ever for the metric came in late 1999 and early 2000. As previously mentioned, the dot-com bubble burst soon afterward. Another peak occurred in late 2021, with the stock market plunging the following year.S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts. CAPE Ratio = cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio.You might have noticed that the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio is at its second-highest level ever right now. If history is a guide, a market downturn could be right around the corner.Is a crash coming next year?These two indicators are flawless in forecasting market meltdowns. So, is a stock market crash inevitable next year? I wouldn't go that far.It's important to note that there are few historical precedents for the Buffett indicator and the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio hitting super-high levels. As such, they don't meet the requirements for being statistically significant.Also, stocks can remain at frothy valuations for long periods. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan famously used his \"irrational exuberance\" phrase describing the stock market on Dec. 5, 1996. The S&P 500 nearly doubled between then and the end of 1999.However, I don't think investors should ignore the Buffett indicator and the S&P 500 CAPE ratio. These indicators absolutely point to historically high valuations. Don't assume that a stock market crash is on the way, but be prepared for one just in case. That means buying stocks that are valued attractively relative to their growth prospects and building cash reserves.Most importantly, though, maintain a long-term perspective. Stocks ultimately rebounded and set new highs following all the stock market crashes in the past. They'll almost certainly do so after the next crash -- whenever it happens.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}