** Texas Instruments TXN.O forecast fourth-quarter revenue and profit below Wall Street estimates on Tuesday, stoking fears of a long road ahead for a full recovery in the analog chip market due to murky tariff rules for the semiconductor industry

** Shares down 8.5% premarket

PAINFUL ON THE MARGIN

** Morgan Stanley ("underweight," PT: $175) says "TXN had upside in September, and we expected some margin pressure in December, but a weaker revenue outlook was a surprise"** Adds, while modest tailwinds are expected from the macro and inventory cycles, and order trends in industrial markets appear upbeat, it is surprising that this has not yet been reflected in TI's performance

** J.P.Morgan ("overweight," PT: $210) says the demand environment remains constructive, though the recovery pace is much more gradual than anticipated

** TD Cowen ("buy," PT: $200) says with TI done building inventory, seasonality, depreciation, and underutilization are coalescing into gusting gross margin $(GM)$ headwinds** "It's going to take time and a better backdrop to play out"

** Jefferies ("hold," PT: $180) says "we don't love the Analog group here, given the lack of any cyclical recovery until maybe Q2 next yea,r and remain on the sidelines for TXN, given the higher relative valuation vs. less revenue upside left in any potential cyclical recovery"

(Reporting by Joel Jose in Bengaluru)

((joeljose@thomsonreuters.com))