AI芯片军备竞赛背后，HBM成了资源战争的焦点

半导体产业报告

2025/10/21

在半导体行业，如果说谁是AI时代下的“显眼包”，那一定是HBM。三年前还只是高性能计算边缘角色的HBM，如今已经成为AI芯片不可或缺的核心资源。日前，TrendForce 发布的《How AI Growth Will Drive HBM Demand Beyond 2025》报告，为我们提供了一个极具价值的视角：未来两年，HBM不仅将深刻影响AI芯片格局，也正在重塑整个DRAM市场的收益结构。这...

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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251021075259a6c49068&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1861559042.SGD","symbol_name":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251021075259a6c49068&s=b","article_id":"2577897613","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251021075259a6c49068&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2577897613","pubTimestamp":1761004238,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"报告指出，2026年将是HBM产能扩张的关键一年。而这背后，藏着一场高端芯片的军备竞赛——谁能“装下更多HBM”，谁的AI芯片就可能更强大。我们习惯了在AI芯片上比拼峰值性能，却常常忽略，那些高速计算的背后，是一块块高密度、高带宽的HBM在默默支撑。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4614":"Manus概念股","LU1303367103.USD":"摩根大通多经理另类基金 A 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ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4528":"SaaS概念"},"translate_title":"Behind the AI chip arms race, HBM has become the focus of the resource war","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"HBM":0.9,"AMD":0.61,"AI":0.81,"MU":0.9,"NVDA":0.9},"content_text":"在半导体行业，如果说谁是AI时代下的“显眼包”，那一定是HBM。三年前还只是高性能计算边缘角色的HBM，如今已经成为AI芯片不可或缺的核心资源。日前，TrendForce 发布的《How AI Growth Will Drive HBM Demand Beyond 2025》报告，为我们提供了一个极具价值的视角：未来两年，HBM不仅将深刻影响AI芯片格局，也正在重塑整个DRAM市场的收益结构。这不是一个炒概念的判断，而是一份以数据为基础、从供需到价格、从芯片设计到市场份额全链路分析的研究。看懂这份报告，就看懂了2025之后的AI算力底层战争。一、HBM产能：谁在扩？谁在卷？报告指出，2026年将是HBM产能扩张的关键一年。从晶圆厂到堆叠封装（TSV）都在为此重新配置资源：TSV产能比重将从2025年的19%上升至2026年的23%；供应商正集中火力在HBM产线扩张，其中 SK hynix 持续领先，Micron 市占率也将在2025年冲到“高十几”%。HBM的产能扩张不是盲目堆量，而是高度集中于HBM3e和HBM4节点，因为这些版本已成为AI芯片的标准配置。“谁掌握了HBM产线，谁就掌握了AI芯片生态的主动权。”二、AI芯片需求：一场卷内存的大戏NVIDIA、AMD、Google、AWS等芯片巨头的产品路线图清晰显示——HBM容量正在被推到极致。NVIDIA 预计在 2026 年推出的 GB300 芯片，单颗最高将配置576GB HBM3e；AMD 的 MI400 也将进入HBM4 288GB时代；Google 和 AWS 则加速自研 AI ASICs，HBM 成为标配，从 HBM2 到 HBM3e 迅速升级。更重要的是，NVIDIA 由于产品性能和市场接受度高，2025年对HBM的消耗将达到全行业的68%，其芯片的“内存吞噬量”是决定HBM需求天花板的关键因子。而这背后，藏着一场高端芯片的军备竞赛——谁能“装下更多HBM”，谁的AI芯片就可能更强大。三、价格趋势：贵得有理，还会更贵报告预测，2025年HBM的平均销售单价（ASP）将同比上涨20.8%，达到1.80美元/Gb。为什么涨这么猛？HBM3e的渗透率迅速上升，而它的成本和技术要求远高于前代；AI公司为了保证供应，超额采购HBM以防断供；三星在HBM3e上的产能与技术认证进度落后，供应偏紧。这是一场供需逻辑主导的价格拉升，不是炒作，而是现实。“当AI大模型像吞金兽一样压榨内存带宽时，HBM的每一个Gb都变成了黄金。”四、市场格局：DRAM三巨头重新排位过去，三星是DRAM收入的长期王者，但报告指出：2025年第一季度，SK hynix 首次超越三星，成为DRAM营收冠军；原因不在于总产能，而在于——HBM带来的收入激增；到2025年，HBM将占到DRAM总营收的33%，而仅占比特产出的8%。也就是说，HBM虽然量少，但价高，毛利足，成为拉高收入和利润的“暴利高地”。这让我们看到了一个明显趋势：未来的DRAM市场不拼谁产得多，而是拼谁能掌控HBM产能、拿下AI芯片客户。五、产业洞察：AI芯片背后的内存战争如果我们把AI芯片看作是一场超级芯片战，那HBM就是“粮草”。这场战争的逻辑正在被悄悄改写：算力瓶颈不在计算，而在内存带宽；AI大模型越强，HBM的容量和通道压力越大；HBM变成了AI芯片生态的战略资源，而非可选配件。这意味着：内存厂商将不再是“幕后配角”，而是走上台前，成为决定AI时代下游竞争力的关键角色。从台积电押注先进封装，到英伟达自研互联架构，再到HBM价格年年走高，底层基础设施的战争，才刚刚开始。真正的变量，藏在“无聊参数”背后HBM的故事，其实是另一个层面的算力战争。不是谁跑得更快，而是谁能扛得更久；不是谁芯片做得更强，而是谁有足够的“内存续航”。它不是明星产品，却决定了明星能否登场。我们习惯了在AI芯片上比拼峰值性能，却常常忽略，那些高速计算的背后，是一块块高密度、高带宽的HBM在默默支撑。所以，有时候，一个时代的答案，不写在头牌芯片的参数表里，而藏在供应链最底层那行看起来“无聊”的位宽、带宽和颗粒数。未来两年，谁理解了这点，谁就能真正看清方向。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}