Tesla Inc. benefited from a surge in electric-vehicle demand last quarter as customers sought to take advantage of tax credits that were about to expire. But now investor attention will turn to what comes next.

With the credit now expired, market conditions could get more challenging for Tesla, and the company isn’t standing still. It recently rolled out a set of lower-cost models, although the cars aren’t as inexpensive as some on Wall Street were anticipating.

Tesla’s management team could share more about the outlook for those models — and for sales in general — when the company reports third-quarter earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday. Here are the big numbers and themes to watch.

The fundamentals

Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Tesla to record $26.4 billion in revenue, a 17% increase compared with a quarter earlier, thanks to expiring U.S. electric vehicle tax credits. Although the expiration is expected to hurt Tesla — andother EV sellers— in the current quarter, the rush to cash in gave the companyits best quarteron record for deliveries.

Tesla said it delivered 497,099 vehicles during the September quarter, up 7.4% from a year prior and far above estimates that called for 456,000 units. The majority of those sales were attributed to the Model Y and Model 3, with fewer than 16,000 Model X, Model S and Cybertrucks sold.

Wall Street expects automotive revenue of $19.6 billion, including $417 million worth of automotive regulatory credits. Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits, an indicator of the health of Tesla’s core business, is expected to hit 16.3%, up from 15% last quarter, according to estimates.

Credit revenue, which has helped prop up Tesla’s profit, has been declining this year, a trend that is set to continue. President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” scrapped the penalties for carmakers that fail to meet Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards. Without that penalty, carmakers that had been buying credits from Tesla to avoid fines now lack a reason to do so.

Adjusted earnings per share of 55 cents is expected to grow by roughly 38% on a sequential basis but be down 24% from a year earlier. Net income is projected to be about $1.8 billion, down from $2.2 billion a year earlier.

Autonomy is everything

Top of mind for investors and analysts will be the future of Tesla — not just whether the company can continue its EV dominance, but whether it can achieve Chief Executive Elon Musk’s big dreams for the robotics business.

Musk has promoted Tesla as more of an artificial-intelligence company than the automaker it is usually viewed as. He has emphasized that humanoid robots and self-driving cars are where Tesla’s growth lies. During a call with investors Wednesday, Musk will be expected to give an update on that technology.

“We continue to strongly believe the most important chapter
in Tesla’s growth story is now beginning,” Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives, a Tesla bull, said in a Sunday note to investors. Ives said that Tesla could grow its current $1.5 trillion valuation to as much as $2 trillion by early next year and to $3 trillion by the end of 2026, driven by volume production of its robotic and autonomous segments.

The company has launched its self-driving taxi service in July in Austin, Texas, although it currently takes riders around in Model Ys supervised by a safety driver. Tesla has expanded to or has permits for work in California, Nevada and Arizona and aims to move into other cities across the U.S. as well.

Tesla has forecast a 2026 launch for driverless operations, with Musk predicting that there will be “millions” of self-driving Teslas in the second half of next year. The Cybercab, a vehicle designed for autonomous operations that lacks both a steering wheel and pedals, is set to enter production next year. Eventually, the vehicle will sell for about $30,000, Musk has said.

Not all analysts are convinced by Musk’s vision. Garrett Nelson at CFRA Research said that while he’s impressed with Tesla’s advancements, he thinks Musk may be ”overpromising” and creating “unrealistic” expectations for the near-term growth of the robotaxi network.

Nelson sees “too much risk” of potential lawsuits with a fast-tracked nationwide rollout and downgraded Tesla’s stock to sell from hold last month.

The company has faced lawsuits in which plaintiffs have alleged its driver-assistance technology contributed to crashes and other incidents. Tesla has settled several cases, including two just last month, and is appealing an August verdict that found it partly liable for a 2019 fatal car crash that involved its Autopilot software.

Also on the table is the state of Optimus, a program to build humanoid robots that Musk imagines doing everything from factory work to childcare to serving popcorn. Just last month, the CEO said 80% of Tesla’s value will be based on the robots.

But the program has been behind, and Tesla has scrapped its plans to build 10,000 units for internal use this year, according to The Information. Tesla’s vice president of Optimus robotics, Milan Kovac, left in June after nine years at the company.

The $1 trillion question

Although Musk’s pay is not the main focus of Wednesday’s earnings call, it could get some attention as Tesla’s Nov. 6 annual meeting draws nearer. That’s when the future of the largest compensation package in corporate history will be decided.

Investors will have the chance to vote on multiple proposals related to Musk’s pay. One will replenish a pool of 60 million shares to be granted to employees — and guarantee that Musk will receive the benefits of his 2018 compensation plan, which is still being litigated in Delaware court — while the other carves out a path for him to earn about $1 trillion as long as Tesla achieves certain goals.

Analysts largely expect that investors will vote to approve Musk’s new compensation package, as they did in 2018 and in 2024 when given the chance to weigh in on his pay. For some investors, Musk and his ambitions are inseparable from Tesla, and they fear he may leave Tesla’s robotic dreams behind to focus on SpaceX or xAI.

Tesla’s stock has surged by more than 100% over the past 12 months, fueled largely by investor expectations for AI and signs that Musk will stick around. Last month, Musk bought Tesla shares for the first time since 2020. And for him to fully benefit from the proposed compensation plan, he’ll need to stay at Tesla for years.

“If you’re a Tesla shareholder, you likely believe in Elon Musk’s vision … and you believe that Elon Musk is the right person to lead the charge,” said Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein. “If Elon Musk can take Tesla from a $1.5 trillion company to an $8.5 trillion company, investors who hold over the next decade would do pretty well.”