2326 GMT [Dow Jones]--Upcoming revaluations of Australian commercial property will be positive but less exuberant than previous cycles, reckons Morgan Stanley. It analyzed cap rate spreads versus the 3-year swap curve over the past 20 years for major real-estate sectors. This informed how cap rates could compress from here. "We think upward asset revaluation in the medium term will be driven by 50/50 cap rate compression/rent growth," said analyst Simon Chan. That would be a different outcome to the 61/39 split in the 2012-22 property upcycle, MS says. It's hard to foresee that cap rates would compress by as much as 230 bps, which reits experienced across 2012-22, the bank adds. (david.winning@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 20, 2025 19:33 ET (23:33 GMT)

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