By Elena Vardon

Banco Santander is scheduled to report results for the third quarter of 2025 on Wednesday. Here is what you need to know.

NET PROFIT FORECAST: The Spanish lender is expected to report a net profit of 3.43 billion euros ($3.99 billion) for the three months ended Sept. 30, according to a Visible Alpha poll based on 12 analysts' estimates. Santander posted a net profit of 3.25 billion euros for the same period last year.

INCOME FORECAST: The bank's revenue is expected to come in at 15.30 billion euros for the quarter by the same consensus, up from last year's 15.135 billion euros. Net interest income--the difference between what banks earn on loans and what they pay clients for deposits--is expected to contribute 11.17 billion euros to the total result, down from 11.225 billion euros, with the rest coming from resilient fee income.

Shares in Madrid have risen a bumper 92% since the start of the year--making it the largest bank by market capitalization in continental Europe--and last closed at around 8.51 euros.

WHAT TO WATCH

-- The amount of money that Santander sets aside to cover bad loans will be in focus, especially in Brazil, where asset quality is deteriorating, as well as in the U.S. and the U.K. Consensus pencils in 3.00 billion euros in provisions for the quarter, slightly higher than the 2.98 billion euros it booked a year prior.

Given recent troubles in the U.S. subprime space following the messy collapses of car-parts maker First Brands and lender Tricolor, investors are likely to have questions on the exposure of Santander's U.S. consumer finance division, which is one of the largest car-loan providers in the country. "While delinquencies are rising for certain vintages in U.S. auto finance and are subject to future trends, we think the potential impact should be manageable [for Santander]," Citi analysts said.

In the U.K., close attention will be paid to whether the bank increases the 295 million pound provision it has taken for a car-finance probe, and to its recent appeal on the litigation with AXA over Santander's alleged mis-selling of payment-protection insurance policies.

"We believe that any negative news on these issues could put pressure on the share price on the day of the results and cast doubt on the group's cost of risk target," Renta4 said.

-- Loan volume trends across the bank's Europe and Latin America operations will also be scrutinized as margins come under pressure from a lower interest-rate environment in some of its key markets. System data points to loan growth in Spain, the U.K. and Mexico while Brazil, where rates have been rising, slowed down.

-- The extent to which foreign exchange fluctuations drag on results will also be watched, especially in light of the volatility in the Argentinian peso in recent months and the depreciation of the Mexican peso.

-- The market is likely to look beyond the quarterly results and focus on identifying the value levers that Santander is likely to draw to support the strategic plan it will share at its February investor day. Attention will be on further evidence that the management is delivering on its strategic commitments, namely its refocus on its core markets with the sale of most of its stake in its Polish bank to Austria's Erste and acquisition of Sabadell's U.K. unit TSB.

Write to Elena Vardon at elena.vardon@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 28, 2025 07:20 ET (11:20 GMT)

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