Ford Motor (F) reported Q3 earnings above expectations but lowered its full-year 2025 and 2026 profit guidance, citing the impact from the Novelis fire, UBS Securities said.

The brokerage said in a note Thursday that the fire is expected to reduce 2025 earnings before interest and taxes by about $1.5 billion to $2 billion, while the net tariff impact improved by about $1 billion compared with earlier guidance. Excluding the fire, UBS said Ford's outlook would have been raised to the high end of its original range.

The firm now forecasts 2025 adjusted EBIT of $6 billion to $6.5 billion, down from $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, with 2026 guidance reflecting partial recovery of about $1 billion as additional F-150 and SuperDuty capacity comes online.

Adjusted free cash flow is projected at $2 billion to $3 billion, reduced from $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion, with capital expenditures unchanged at $9 billion. The improved tariff assumption may imply a reimbursement in Q4, according to the report.

UBS said Ford's Q3 results exceeded expectations, with total company EBIT of about $2.6 billion versus a $2 billion consensus, supported by stronger pricing and mix in the Blue and Pro divisions. Despite near-term headwinds, the brokerage said the company's core operations remain solid.

The firm has a neutral rating on the stock, with a price target of $12.50.

Shares of the company rose 12.7% in recent Friday trading.

Price: 13.91, Change: +1.57, Percent Change: +12.71