【光大海外】微软25Q3云订单和RPO高增，资本开支超预期加速增长

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10/31

报告标题：《微软云订单和RPO高增，资本开支超预期加速增长——微软（MSFT.O）2026财年一季报业绩点评》报告发布日期：2025年10月31日分析师：付天姿，CFA，FRM（执业证书编号：S0930517040002）分析师：宾特丽亚（执业证书编号：S0930525090001）相关研报【光大海外】从OpenAI o1看AI产业趋势：打破AI应用瓶颈，算力需求前景如何？【光大海外】微软深度报告...

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o1看AI产业趋势：打破AI应用瓶颈，算力需求前景如何？【光大海外】微软深度报告...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251031110457a6d7ebe3&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SG9999014898.SGD","symbol_name":"United Global Quality Growth Fund Dis SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251031110457a6d7ebe3&s=b","article_id":"2579482597","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251031110457a6d7ebe3&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, 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o1看AI产业趋势：打破AI应用瓶颈，算力需求前景如何？【光大海外】微软深度报告：引领AIGC时代洪流，建立生态护城河【光大海外】微软暂缓AI数据中心建设，如何看待关税对美股云厂商的影响？【光大海外】AI驱动微软Azure营收超预期加速增长，2026财年资本开支适度扩张【光大海外】微软营收指引逊于预期，AI相关收入超预期加速增长【光大海外】微软Azure收入增速或将放缓，后续资本支出增长能否持续？【光大海外】微软云收入增速放缓，资本支出和Copilot用户数快速增长【光大海外】AI驱动微软云服务加速回暖，持续丰富Copilot产品矩阵【光大海外】微软FY24Q2业绩超预期，AI助力Azure加速增长【光大海外】微软Copilot面向更多用户开放，提质增效与商业模式持续性得到验证【光大海外】微软FY24Q1业绩超预期，Azure强劲增长驱动云业务复苏微软“AI+操作系统”初见雏形，生态壁垒是AIGC核心竞争力要点事件：美国东部时间10月29日盘后，微软发布FY26Q1业绩公告。截至北京时间10月30日8:00，微软盘后股价下跌3.98%。FY26Q1营收、利润率超预期，FY26Q2营收指引略低于预期。FY26Q1微软实现营业收入776.7亿美元（超彭博一致预期3.52%，下文简称一致预期），同比增长18.4%；公司指引FY26Q2营业收入795-806亿美元，中位数800.5亿美元，略低于一致预期。FY26Q1微软实现营业利润379.6亿美元，营业利润率48.9%（环比+2.3pcts，vs一致预期46%）；净利润277.5亿美元（高于一致预期2.35%），同比增长12.5%，净利率35.7%。智能云部门营收加速增长，Azure营收增速超指引。FY26Q1微软智能云部门收入309亿美元，同比增长28.2%（前值25.6%）。FY26Q2智能云收入指引322.5-325.5亿美元，中位数超一致预期1.2%。FY26Q1Azure收入同比增长39%（前值39%），高于上季度指引的增速37%。公司指引FY26Q2Azure收入同比增长37%。FY26Q1商业订单同比增长112%，商业RPO同比增长51%至3920亿美元（不计算OpenAI承诺的2500亿美元Azure订单）。生产力和企业流程加速增长，更多个人计算营收增速放缓。FY26Q1微软生产力和企业流程部门收入330.2亿美元，同比增长16.6%（前值15.7%）。FY26Q1微软更多个人计算部门收入137.6亿美元，同比增长4.4%（前值9.2%）。FY26Q1资本开支大幅超预期，26财年资本开支增速将高于25财年。FY26Q1微软资本开支349亿美元，同比增长74.5%，高于一致预期16.1%；其中融资租赁占比明显提升，购买固定资产的现金支出194亿美元，同比增长30%。根据FY26Q1电话会，公司将继续增加GPU和CPU投入，资本开支逐季度增长，26财年资本开支增速将高于25财年。根据FY26Q1业绩电话会，26财年微软AI总产能预计提升超80%，未来两年数据中心总面积将大致翻倍。盈利预测、估值与评级：考虑到AI驱动Azure收入超预期加速增长，上调26-28财年营收预测至3247/3759/4327亿美元（相比上次预测+3.4%/+4.7% /+4.7%）；考虑到公司持续优化运营效率，提升资本开支中的融资租赁占比，上调26-28财年净利润预测至1190/1386/1638亿美元（相比上次预测+3.8%/+3.3%/+5.5%），现价对应PE34x/29x/25x，维持“买入”评级。风险提示：宏观经济不及预期、关税政策不确定性、AI商业化进展不及预期免责声明本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称“光大证券研究所”）海外研究团队依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任何以光大证券研究所XX研究团队名义注册的、或含有“光大证券研究”、与光大证券研究所品牌名称等相关信息的订阅号均不是光大证券研究所海外研究团队的官方订阅号。本订阅号所刊载的信息均基于光大证券研究所已正式发布的研究报告，仅供在新媒体形势下研究信息、研究观点的及时沟通交流，其中的资料、意见、预测等，均反映相关研究报告初次发布当日光大证券研究所的判断，可能需随时进行调整，本订阅号不承担更新推送信息或另行通知的义务。如需了解详细的证券研究信息，请具体参见光大证券研究所发布的完整报告。在任何情况下，本订阅号所载内容不构成任何投资建议，任何投资者不应将本订阅号所载内容作为投资决策依据，本公司也不对任何人因使用本订阅号所载任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。本订阅号所载内容版权仅归光大证券股份有限公司所有。任何机构和个人未经书面许可不得以任何形式翻版、复制、转载、刊登、发表、篡改或者引用。如因侵权行为给光大证券造成任何直接或间接的损失，光大证券保留追究一切法律责任的权利。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}