Updates throughout; adds Nomura's forecast change
Oct 31 (Reuters) - Major brokerages expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver a single 25-basis-point interest rate cut at its final policy meeting in December.
The Fed on Wednesday cut rates by 25 bps, as expected, to cushion job market weakness, but flagged that missing data from the government shutdown could prompt more cautious policymaking.
Following decision, Nomura said it expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its December policy meeting. But other brokerages still see another round of easing by the end of the year.
Traders are now pricing in a 67.9% chance of a December cut, according to LSEG data.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025:
Brokerage | Total cuts in 2025 | No. of more cuts in 2025 | Fed Funds Rate (end of 2025) |
Citigroup | 25 bps | 1 | 3.00-3.25% (March 2026) |
25 bps | 1 | 3.50-3.75% | |
Goldman Sachs | 25 bps | 1 | 3.50-3.75% |
J.P.Morgan | 25 bps | 1 | 3.50-3.75% |
Barclays | 25 bps | 1 | 3.50-3.75% |
Nomura | 0 bps | no cut | 3.75-4.00% |
25 bps | 1 | 3.50-3.75% | |
Deutsche Bank | 25 bps | 1 | 3.50-3.75% |
BofA Global Research | 0 bps | no cut | 3.75-4.00% |
UBS Global Research | 50 bps(by Q1 2026) | 1 | 3.25-3.50% (by Q1 2026) |
25 bps | 1 | 3.50-3.75% | |
25 bps | 1 | 3.50-3.75% | |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 50 bps(by Q1 2026) | 1 | 3.25-3.50% (by Q1 2026) |
Standard Chartered | 25 bps | 1 | 3.50-3.75% |
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Anil D'Silva, Tasim Zahid and Rashmi Aich)
((JoelJose@thomsonreuters.com))