Karishma Vanjani

Gold in the year since President Donald Trump's victory at the polls has notched an unparalleled run -- and the pace of gains may continue, at least according to one historical data point.

Gold has gained 45.2% since Nov. 5, 2024 through Wednesday's close, a record postelection year, according to Dow Jones Market Data team. The next best years were under Barack Obama when gold notched a 43.6% gain from November of 2008 through November of 2009, and when gold gained 31.8% in the year after Jimmy Carter was elected in November of 1976. The percent change is calculated based off most actively traded gold futures.

Expectation that Federal Reserve policymakers will cut interest rates swiftly in 2025 triggered a rally in gold to kick off the year. It increased the appeal of gold relative to other safe haven assets like Treasury bills and high-yield savings that were expected to yield less. Growing demand for gold from central bank reserve managers globally and private investors in China and Japan has been a positive too.

A helping hand from Trump came in the form of his attacks on the Fed's independence. The president demanded lower interest rates, calling Fed Chair Jerome Powell "stupid" and threatening to fire him and Fed governor Lisa Cook. It pushed more investors to seek safety in gold. The messy geopolitics marked by Trump's on-and-off again tariffs also lifted gold prices.

More gains in gold could be in the cards, according to one data point. Following the gains seen in the year after the election of Obama and Carter, gold continued to surge in year two and three as well, a note by research firm Bespoke Investment Group showed.

Capital Economics sees a bleaker future for gold. The firm's commodities and climate economist Hamad Hussain recently projected gold's prices to fall to $3,500 per ounce by year end-2026. The latest push higher "looks like a market bubble that is in its final stages," he writes.

Gold, on Wednesday, attempted to break through the $4,000 level, but settled at $3992.90 instead. It has notched 49 fresh records in the past 10 months.

Write to Karishma Vanjani at karishma.vanjani@dowjones.com.

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November 06, 2025 01:30 ET (06:30 GMT)

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