MW Global shipping plays Maersk and DHL sail unruffled through the tariff war

By Jules Rimmer

Stock prices of both companies have rebounded to where they were before trade hostilities commenced in April

Logistics companies are the canaries in the coal mine when it comes to economic disruption and a slowdown in global commerce.

When the White House announced import tariffs on the rest of the world in April, triggering a global trade war, the share prices of Danish shipping company A.P. Moeller-Maersk (DK:MAERSK.B) and German shipper DHL (XE:DHL) plummeted. The two companies being global barometers of the vigor of global commerce, their share-price drops of roughly a quarter seemed understandable.

When it comes to signs of economic disruption, logistics companies are the canaries in the coal mine.

A lot has changed since then. First of all, the stock prices of both companies have rebounded to where they were before trade hostilities commenced. Second, the worst fears of a collapse in world trade did not materialize, and the two chief protagonists, the U.S. and China, reached a trade agreement last week, declaring a truce extending 12 months. Lastly, Maersk and DHL both announced third-quarter earnings on Thursday, with DHL leaving its guidance for 2026 unchanged and Maersk actually improving its outlook.

DHL Group managed to exceed both guidance and analyst consensus modestly with earnings before interest and taxes of EUR1.437 billion (equivalent to $1.66 billion) last quarter, but most encouragingly for shareholders seeking reassurance, the company lifted its share-buyback program by EUR2 billion to a total of EUR6 billion, declared a dividend yield of 4.3% and reported that free cash flow doubled from a year earlier to EUR1.2 billion. These are all evidence of a healthy company exuding confidence, and management crowed that it was "well-positioned" for the fourth quarter, its busiest time of the year.

It appears that the abolition of the de minimis exemption for the shipment of low-value goods to the U.S. has not had the debilitating effect many analysts had forecast. DHL's stock reacted to the earnings release with an 8% jump in Thursday trading.

Maersk also managed to exceed analyst estimates for the third quarter, with earnings before interest and taxes of EUR2.7 billion, narrowly beating the consensus of EUR2.56 billion. Tellingly, global container volume growth is expected at 4% for full-year 2025, which looks relatively solid compared with what economists imagined could be the case in the first week of April. The shipping and logistics group actually increased its full-year guidance, but to levels where analysts were already waiting with their models.

In fact, Maersk warned of falling freight rates in the fourth quarter, flagging oversupply concerns, and its stock has dropped 5% in Thursday trading, but given its rally from DKK 9,150 (equivalent to $1,413) in April to DKK 12,795 Thursday, shareholders might have expected an element of "travel and arrive" with the numbers.

-Jules Rimmer

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November 06, 2025 09:29 ET (14:29 GMT)

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