CAVA Group Cuts Full-Year Outlook Amid Slowing Q4 Trends, Macroeconomic Pressures, Morgan Stanley Says

MT Newswires Live
2025/11/06

CAVA Group (CAVA) has lowered its financial outlook for the full fiscal year, reflecting a slowing trend in Q4 and broader macroeconomic pressures impacting its customer base, Morgan Stanley said in a report Wednesday.

The company posted Q3 adjusted earnings of $0.12 per share, slipping from $0.13 in the same period last year, with revenue of $292.2 million, up from $243.8 million a year earlier.

CAVA narrowed its full-year outlook, cutting same-store sales growth guidance to 3% to 4% from 4% to 6% after posting a weaker-than-expected 1.9% gain in Q3, while also trimming its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization forecast to $148 million to $152 million and tightening restaurant-level margin expectations, the report said.

"[W]e've taken a more cautious view into 2026 for now," Morgan Stanley said, adding that the critical customer cohort-those between the ages of 25 and 35 has shown a decreased "propensity" to visit, attributing the weakness to economic issues such as student loan payments and unemployment rates.

Morgan Stanley maintained an equal weight rating on CAVA and lowered its price target to $86 from $95, adding that while CAVA's early-stage brand dynamics are not currently offsetting the slowdown, the company's new unit performance and long-term brand position remain strong.

Shares of the company were up 1.3% in recent Wednesday trading.

Price: 52.21, Change: +0.50, Percent Change: +0.98

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