长城证券：AI巨头上调资本开支存储减产加剧价格上行

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2025/11/20

智通财经APP获悉，长城证券发布研报称，AI投资持续扩大，映射出算力需求持续强劲;在原厂减产控货+涨价双重驱动下，现货Flash Wafer价格强势上涨，服务器、手机、PC等各应用端的存储成品全面掀起涨价潮;AI算力需求提速，带动高多层板、HDI与IC载板等高端PCB产品量价齐升，相关产业链有望受益。随着AI服务器机架功率在未来两到三年内突破1MW，电源构架加速迈向高压800V直流供电体系，相关...

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Wafer价格强势上涨，服务器、手机、PC等各应用端的存储成品全面掀起涨价潮;AI算力需求提速，带动高多层板、HDI与IC载板等高端PCB产品量价齐升，相关产业链有望受益。随着AI服务器机架功率在未来两到三年内突破1MW，电源构架加速迈向高压800V直流供电体系，相关元件需求持续提升。长城证券主要观点如下：事件1)北美CSP谷歌、微软、亚马逊、Meta相继披露最新业绩，其中谷歌将2025年资本开支从850亿美元上调至910-930亿美元，微软预计2026财年资本开支的增长率将高于2025财年，亚马逊将2025年资本开支从年初预计的年化约1000亿美元上调至1250亿美元，Meta将2025年资本开支从660-720亿美元上调至700-720亿美元。2)据Digitimes报道称，闪迪(SanDisk)11月大幅调涨NAND闪存合约价格，涨幅高达50%。此外，据《朝鲜日报》报道，三星电子、SK海力士、铠侠、美光等全球主要NAND闪存制造商正在今年下半年集体削减NAND闪存供应。北美CSP持续上修资本开支，强化AI景气度预期北美头部CSP厂商普遍上调2025年资本开支，核心逻辑在于市场对AI算力的需求出现超预期增长，直接体现在CSP厂商高额的积压订单及商业合约，验证了AI景气持续上行。同时也反映了CSP厂商通过加大对AI算力基础设施的持续投资，强化自身的技术壁垒，以此构建长期核心竞争力。1)谷歌：公司预计在2025年第四季度乃至2026年，市场仍将处于供需偏紧的状态。鉴于来自云客户的需求以及在全公司范围内看到的增长机会，公司积极加大投资力度，将2025年全年资本开支预期上调至910-930亿美元，2026年公司将显著增加资本开支。截至25Q3末，谷歌云积压订单金额为1550亿美元，同比+82%，环比+46%。谷歌云在2025年前九个月签署的价值数十亿美元的交易数量，已超过了过去两年的总和。2)微软：FY26Q1商业剩余履约义务(RPO)增长超过50%，接近4000亿美元，而加权平均合同期限仅为2年，订单量、RPO到产品使用率等各项需求指标的增长速度均超出公司预期，随着需求加速增长以及RPO金额的增加，公司正在增加对GPU和CPU的投入，预计2026财年的资本支出增长率将高于2025财年。3)亚马逊：截至25Q3末，AWS积压订单已增至2000亿美元，且尚未包含10月份签署的几笔尚未公开的新交易，且新签合同的总金额超过整个Q3的全部成交额。公司预计2025年全年资本支出约1250亿美元，并预计2026年资本支出将进一步增加。4)Meta：公司观察到2026年算力需求超预期增长，将大力投资来满足这些需求。预计2025年资本支出(包括融资租赁本金支付)将在700亿至720亿美元之间，高于此前预测的660亿至720亿美元，并预计2026年资本支出增幅将明显高于2025年。存储价格大幅上涨，头部厂商减产加剧价格上行此次NANDFlash的价格大幅增长，一方面源于头部存储厂商通过主动调控供应来扭转此前因供过于求导致的价格低迷局面，从而提升盈利能力;另一方面，受AI对储存容量需求急速攀升的影响，存储厂商将更多产能转向更高阶的工艺，造成传统消费级存储产能受到挤压。根据Omdia的年度NAND闪存产量数据，三星电子已将今年的NAND晶圆产量目标下调至约472万片，较去年的507万片减少约7%。铠侠也将年产量从去年的480万片调减至469万片。Omdia预计，三星和铠侠的减产趋势将持续到明年。SK海力士的NAND产量已从去年的约201万片降至约180万片，降幅约10%;美光也采取保守的供应策略，将其最大NAND生产基地新加坡Fab 7工厂的产量维持在约30万片的较低水平。根据闪迪FY26Q1最新业绩会，公司指出，NAND需求显著超过供应，这一态势自2025年起已显现，并将持续贯穿整个2026年日历年，甚至可能延续至2027年及以后。公司预计2026年数据中心市场的位元需求将同比增长40%以上，增长主要源于客户在数据中心和边缘侧寻求更高的AI推理能力，对解决AI推理存储问题的创新方案需求激增。此外，已有客户主动寻求长期供应保障，部分已开始洽谈2027年供货协议，因此，受益AI需求持续旺盛，存储高景气度有望延续至2027年。风险提示：宏观环境波动风险，AI应用不及预期，云厂商资本开支不及预期，市场竞争加剧风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}

长城证券：AI巨头上调资本开支 存储减产加剧价格上行

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长城证券：AI巨头上调资本开支存储减产加剧价格上行