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HUMP DAY DATA: STALE TRADE BALANCE, FRESH MORTGAGES

With the government reopened and the data floodgates beginning to open, official economic indicators are trickling in.

And the stalest reports seem to be first in line.

Today, our presence is graced by three-month-old trade data.

The trade gap USTBAL=ECI, or the difference in the value of goods and services imported to the U.S. and those exported abroad, narrowed by 23.8% in August to $59.6 billion.

The reading is 2.3% narrower than economist predictions, notching the lowest trade deficit in two years.

Under the hood, Trump's erratic tariff policies have driven a 5.1% drop in exports, while imports, which account for the lion's share of the United States' total international trade, increased by a measly 0.1%.

Imports are a GDP detractor, so the data could bode well for the Commerce Department's overdue first take on July-September GDP, expected in the next several days.

"August’s smaller trade deficit will be a tailwind for third quarter real GDP, since it means that more U.S. expenditures were directed toward domestically-produced goods and services rather than foreign ones," says Bill Adams, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank.

Here's a look at the extent to which the Trump tariffs have affected U.S. imports from China, Mexico and Canada:

Switching to non-government sources, more contemporary data is on offer from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The cost of financing home loans heated up last week, and would-be borrowers were unimpressed.

The average 30-year fixed contract rate USMG=ECI added 3 basis points to land at 6.37%.

As a result, demand for loans to purchase homes USMGPI=ECI - among the housing market's most leading indicators - dampened by 2.3%. Refi applications USMGR=ECI, which accounted for 55.4% of total mortgage activity, slid 7.3%.

Combined, total mortgage demand inched 5.2% lower.

"With the 30-year fixed rate inching higher to its highest level in four weeks... potential homebuyers moving to the sidelines again,” writes Joel Kan, MBA’s deputy chief economist. “Refinance applications decreased as borrowers remain sensitive to even small increases in rates at this level. "

The 30-year fixed rate currently sits 53 basis points below where it was during the same week a year ago.

Over that same period, purchase applications have increased by 24.0%, while refi demand has spiked 124.7%.

(Stephen Culp)

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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)