By Angela Palumbo

Retail stocks typically rise in the week following Black Friday as Wall Street looks to reap the benefits of people rushing to save while shopping for the holidays -- but one name could be a standout in 2025.

Black Friday brings in billions of dollars to U.S. businesses annually as price cuts spur shoppers to participate in the retail event and purchase gifts and everyday essentials. Shoppers spent $11.8 billion online on Black Friday 2025, according to Adobe, above the firm's forecast of $11.7 billion and a 9.1% increase from the previous year.

Dow Jones Market Data looked at multiple retail stocks and their historical average performances for the week after Black Friday going back to 2000, or the year they started trading, whichever came first.

Since 2000, shares of Target have averaged a 1% gain in the week after Black Friday. Williams-Sonoma, Lowe's, Amazon.com, and Home Depot, meanwhile, have averaged gains of 3%, 2.6%, 1.6%, and 1.1%, respectively, in that span. Other retailers typically have more muted moves: Walmart, Macy's, and Kohl's have averaged respective gains of 0.05%, 0.3%, and 0.2%.

Shares of Ulta Beauty, which went public in 2007, have jumped an average of 4.1% in the week after Black Friday since then. Burlington Stores -- which went public in 2013 -- has since averaged a 1.7% gain in the week after the unofficial retail holiday.

But it isn't just retailers that see a spending boost during the biggest savings event of the year.

Buy-now, pay-later, or BNPL, companies give shoppers a short-term financing option for purchases that allow someone to split their payments across multiple installments. According to data from Adobe Analytics, BNPL is becoming an increasingly popular option for consumers.

On Black Friday, BNPL drove $747.5 million in online spend, an 8.9% year over year increase, according to Adobe. The firm also forecasts $20.2 billion will be spent via BNPL this holiday season, or Nov. 1 through Dec 31., which implies 11% growth from the year-ago period.

Affirm Holdings is a popular BNPL option for consumers. The stock, which went public in 2021, has surged an average of 9.1% in the week after Black Friday over the last three years, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

This year, the stock is up 17%. Of the 31 analysts who cover the stock and are tracked by FactSet, 22 rate it Buy, seven rate it as a Hold, and two rate it as a Sell.

Affirm stock also popped 12% on Nov. 7 after the company reported better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter financial results and raised its fiscal 2026 forecast for gross merchandise volume and operating margin.

Adobe expects $14.2 billion in Cyber Monday sales -- which would be an increase of 6.3% from the previous year and more than Black Friday's online figures. Affirm may get a piece of that pie.

Write to Angela Palumbo at angela.palumbo@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 29, 2025 13:31 ET (18:31 GMT)

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