The opinions expressed here are those of the author.

By Dhara Ranasinghe

LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Dhara Ranasinghe, Editor, Financial Markets EMEA.

What matters in U.S. and global markets today.

Trade in the final month of a turbulent 2025 is underway and the readout from markets is that it's unlikely to be a quiet end to the year.

Also, check out the latest episode of the new Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

For more from Mike Dolan, check out his column today on how White House adviser Kevin Hassett could become the Federal Reserve's "shadow chair" for five months.

Today's Market Minute

• U.S. and Ukrainian officials held what both sides called productive talks on Sunday about a Russia peace deal, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressing optimism about progress despite challenges to ending the more than 3-year-long war.

• Asia's manufacturing powerhouses struggled with sluggish demand in November, extending declines in factory activity as progress in U.S. trade negotiations failed to translate into a significant recovery in orders.

• Airbus fleets were returning towards normal operations on Monday after the European planemaker pushed through abrupt software changes faster than expected, as it wrestled with safety headlines long focused on rival Boeing.

• European countries are loosening their strict opposition to new oil and gas drilling, reversing years of climate-driven resistance to fossil fuels as governments seek to reduce a heavy reliance on costly energy imports, including from the U.S, writes ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso.

• China financed and built Indonesia's nickel industry, transforming it into the world's largest producer in a decade but now they are not so sure it needs all that nickel as its electric vehicle manufacturers pivot away from nickel-chemistry batteries, writes ROI Metal Columnist Andy Home.

A far from quiet end to the year

Everywhere you look the risks are stacking up hard and fast, but for now, let's stick to the immediate horizon.

If bitcoin BTC= can be seen as a proxy for Wall Street, then Monday's 5% drop in the crypto currency back below $90,000 does not bode well.

The currency is set for its biggest one-day fall in almost a month, fitting in with the risk off mode taking hold across world markets, with Asian and European shares .STOXX lower and U.S. equity futures pointing decidedly down ESc1.

There doesn't appear to be a single catalyst for the risk-off mood, although for some the answer lies in the heaviest selling in Japanese government bonds in four months on the prospect of a Bank of Japan rate hike as early as this month.

The BOJ will consider the "pros and cons" of raising rates at its next policy meeting, Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday, giving the strongest signal yet of a December hike.

That's given a boost to the battered yen JPY=, while rate sensitive two-year bond yields rose to their highest since 2008 JP2YTN=JBTC and the blue-chip Nikkei tumbled almost 2% .N225.

Central bank direction also remains in focus on Wall Street as the December 10 Fed meeting looms, against a backdrop of flip-flopping from traders over whether rates will be cut.

Adding to the uncertainty is an expectation that U.S. President Donald Trump could soon announce the next Fed chair, meaning markets could be caught between hanging on the words of current Fed chief Jerome Powell as well as his successor.

Just before the Thanksgiving break, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Trump would likely announce the nominee before Christmas with White House aide Kevin Hassett seen as the front runner.

Late on Sunday, Trump said he knows who he will pick as next Fed chair.

Signs meanwhile that in progress in U.S. trade negotiations failed to translate into a significant recovery in orders among Asia's manufacturing powerhouses may also help explain caution across world stock markets.

A raft of purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) on Monday showed declines in activity in China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

In China, the world's largest manufacturer, factory activity slipped back into contraction, a private-sector PMI showed, a day after Beijing's official measure showed activity falling for the eighth consecutive month albeit at a slower pace.

Euro zone manufacturing activity also slipped back into contraction territory in November, Monday data showed.

U.S. and Ukrainian officials meanwhile held what both sides called productive talks on Sunday about a Russia peace deal, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressing optimism about progress despite challenges to ending the more than three-year-long war.

Chart of the day

Bitcoin is back below $90,000, extending losses after its steepest monthly decline since the 2021 crypto crash, as renewed risk aversion drove investors out of stocks and digital assets.

Today's events to watch

- U.S. November ISM index

- Treasury Bill auction

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

((Dhara.Ranasinghe@thomsonreuters.com; +442075422684;))