惠誉：中国炼油利润率有望受益于遏制恶性竞争政策

阿斯达克财经

2025/12/04

惠誉评级预期，中国旨在抑制恶性竞争的“反内卷”政策对炼油行业财务表现形成适度支持，随着对新增产能的限制趋严和部分产能出清，利润率有望企稳。不过，惠誉认为，下游石油化工生产商产能过剩将持续，因而利润率将继续承压。政府最新出台的《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025-2026 年)》对炼油行业设定了更严格的产能规定，延续此前淘汰200万吨/年及以下常减压装置的目标。根据最新方案，未来新增产能规模仅可...

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href=\"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1488481/latest-news/AAFN\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0348783662.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ ORIENTAL INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) 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competition","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00386":1,"00857":1},"content_text":"惠誉评级预期，中国旨在抑制恶性竞争的“反内卷”政策对炼油行业财务表现形成适度支持，随着对新增产能的限制趋严和部分产能出清，利润率有望企稳。不过，惠誉认为，下游石油化工生产商产能过剩将持续，因而利润率将继续承压。政府最新出台的《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025-2026 年)》对炼油行业设定了更严格的产能规定，延续此前淘汰200万吨/年及以下常减压装置的目标。根据最新方案，未来新增产能规模仅可低于被淘汰产能，预示着未来几年全国炼油产能将趋于持平甚至下降。截至2024年末，中国原油炼油产能已达9.55亿吨，接近政府设定的上限(10亿吨)。惠誉认为，这一上限为硬性约束，因为以往当产能接近上限时，监管部门会强制削减产能，最近一次是在2022年，彼时多家小型“地炼”被迫退出。受电动汽车普及和电气化范围拓宽的影响，中国汽油和柴油消费正在下降，但石化需求却在随经济扩张而攀升。这促使中国国家石油公司(NOC)投资油转化炼化产能，这或会部分抵消传统燃料销售走弱的影响。惠誉预期，行动方案对新增产能的控制将有助于市场集中度增强和落后产能退出，炼油利润率将温和回升。不过，若政府产能控制成效弱于惠誉预期，则产量上升或将拖累利润率复苏。在石油化工领域，工作方案提到要降低煤制甲醇等行业的产能过剩风险，但惠誉认为，对石化板块大幅调整难度较大。政府或将继续支持大型一体化项目，以填补高端石化产品的供应缺口，但这也使化解低端产能过剩面临更大挑战，尤其是由于该行业多元化以及产品之间的生产关联性意味着难以精准调控单一产品供应。因此，惠誉认为“反内卷”政策在短期内对石化产品供给的影响有限。惠誉表示，近年来，乙烯、丙烯等基础产品，以及聚乙烯(PE)、聚丙烯(PP)、聚氯乙烯(PVC)、环氧丙烷等聚合物的产能扩张步伐快于消费。这些基础产品的出口量增速难以化解产能过剩困局，预期该板块的低盈利能力或将持续。在惠誉授评发行人中，中国石油天然气股份有限公司(中国石油(00857.HK) ，A/稳定）和中国石油化工股份有限公司(中国石化(00386.HK) ，A/稳定)等一体化国家石油公司有望受益于炼油板块的行业集中度提升。其垂直一体化业务结构赋予其高度的自给自足能力和低原料成本，可以缓解在石化行业低谷期间利润率压力。此外，惠誉还预期，随着近年来多项大型项目投产，2026至2030年间国家石油公司资本支出压力将有所缓和，从而对利润率形成支撑。前述效益应会更明显地体现于中国石油，因为其资本支出主要集中于上游板块，且通常随油价走弱而同步回落。(hc/u)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-12-04 12:25。)AASTOCKS新闻","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}