How Amazon’s Stock Could Soar 30% Thanks to Its Cloud Business

Dow Jones
昨天

Amazon.com hasn’t received the same level of artificial-intelligence hype as many of its other “Magnificent Seven” tech peers this year, with investors questioning whether its cloud-computing business can gain market share.

But Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein believes Wall Street is overlooking a golden opportunity.

Amazon has already made strides to boost its Amazon Web Services business this year, and AWS is largely seen as the stock’s biggest growth driver. The company brought its data-center initiative Project Rainier online last month, and reported a reacceleration in AWS revenue growth to 20% for the third quarter.

As Amazon continues to add new cloud-computing capacity, Helfstein said the stock is poised for a resurgence. In a note published Sunday, he reaffirmed his outperform rating and raised his price target on the stock to $305 from $290.

Shares of Amazon have risen 6.7% in 2025 — making them the second-worst performer in the “Magnificent Seven” group of megacap tech stocks so far this year, just a hair ahead of Tesla shares.

Capacity constraints have been a “material headwind” to AWS reacceleration in past quarters, but Helfstein noted that Amazon is planning to double capacity through 2027 and add at least a gigawatt of capacity in the fourth quarter.

In today’s supply-constrained environment, new capacity should be immediately snatched up and translate directly into sales. According to Oppenheimer’s calculations, each incremental gigawatt of capacity brings in roughly $3 billion in revenue. In an upside case, Amazon could add 5 gigawatts of capacity per year over the the next two years.

As Amazon brings more capacity online, AWS revenue could grow 36% year-over-year to $175 billion by the end of 2026, Helfstein wrote. That estimate is significantly higher than the FactSet analyst consensus of $154 billion.

Wall Street estimates imply that AWS’s revenue per gigawatt will decline and capital expenditures will remain high relative to revenue. However, Helfstein argued that pricing will be more resilient as capacity utilization improves, and Amazon’s return on investment for its AI capital expenditures should also improve going forward. AWS capex as a percentage of revenue has increased from 41% in 2024 to an estimated 77% in 2025, but Helfstein expects that to trend toward 56% in 2027, “effectively returning towards historical norms.”

Helfstein pointed to AWS’s cloud-computing conference, re:Invent, which kicked off on Monday, as a potential near-term driver of the stock.

“Any indication of more capacity/improved chip efficiency could be a catalyst,” he wrote.

应版权方要求,你需要登录查看该内容

免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。

热议股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10