Vale (VALE) emerges as the "clear winner" from a longer-than-expected ramp-up at the Simandou iron ore project, prompting RBC Capital Markets to raise its 2026 to 2029 iron ore price forecasts by 13%, the firm said Wednesday.

The brokerage now assumes a 48-month ramp-up phase for Simandou, compared with its prior 30-month estimate, citing operational risks tied to mining conditions and system complexity.

The investment firm expects iron ore prices to remain flat near $100 per ton in the first half of next year before easing to about $95 per ton by the end of 2026, and lifted its long-term price assumption to $85 per ton from $75.

With "less high-grade" and low-alumina material available to blend into the market, Vale's high-grade "IOCJ" and low-alumina products are positioned to sell at a "larger premium," RBC said, leading the firm to raise its 2026 to 2029 premium assumptions by 6%.

Vale is nearing its $15 billion "net debt target," positioning the company to add special dividends on top of its regular payouts and deliver a fiscal 2026 dividend yield of about 9%, more than double the peer average, supported by additional catalysts in its base metals business, the report added.

RBC upgraded the company's stock to outperform from sector perform and raised its price target to $14.20 American Depositary Receipts from $11 ADR.

Shares of Vale were up 1% in recent trading.

Price: 12.93, Change: +0.13, Percent Change: +0.98