广发年度策略 | 2026年，电子行业怎么看？

广发证券研究

2025/12/16

美国经济会衰退吗？今年美联储会降息吗？我国经济复苏现状如何，将如何发展？我国财政政策会作何调整？曾为中国空间站“天宫四号”设计了世界第一个空间冷原子实验平台。著有《量子大唠嗑》《人工智能之不能》《智造中国》。近期市场关于AI产业的讨论较多，我们的核心观点是什么？当前AI算力的竞争焦点在哪里？AI产业链有哪些投资机会？存储周期有哪些投资机会？01近期市场关于AI产业的讨论较多，我们的核心观点是什么？...

网页链接

免责声明：投资有风险，本文并非投资建议，以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请，作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考，不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证，投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。

热议股票

{"basename":"/hans","ssrTDKData":{"titleTemplate":"%s - 老虎证券","title":"Easy breezy. No more feesies.","description":"Tiger Trade is a mobile trading app offering real time data, low commission fees and a free demo account. Download now to start investing in ETFs, options and the global share market.","keywords":"老虎国际,美股交易,港股交易,交易美股,股票信息,股价,美股行情,美股打新,港股打新,IPO打新,购买美股,全球投资","social":{"ogDescription":"Tiger Trade is a mobile trading app offering real time data, low commission fees and a free demo account. Download now to start investing in ETFs, options and the global share market.","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.be62fbe1.png","ogUrl":"https://www.itiger.com/hans/news/2591620949"},"companyName":"老虎证券"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"NZL","license":"TBKIWI","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2591620949\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2591620949?lang=zh_CN&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-12-16 07:06","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2591620949","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"广发年度策略 | 2026年，电子行业怎么看？","media":"广发证券研究","content":"<div>\n<p>美国经济会衰退吗？今年美联储会降息吗？我国经济复苏现状如何，将如何发展？我国财政政策会作何调整？曾为中国空间站“天宫四号”设计了世界第一个空间冷原子实验平台。著有《量子大唠嗑》《人工智能之不能》《智造中国》。近期市场关于AI产业的讨论较多，我们的核心观点是什么？当前AI算力的竞争焦点在哪里？AI产业链有哪些投资机会？存储周期有哪些投资机会？01近期市场关于AI产业的讨论较多，我们的核心观点是什么？...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251216071926a6a6c0c9&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>广发年度策略 | 2026年，电子行业怎么看？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n广发年度策略 | 2026年，电子行业怎么看？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-16 07:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251216071926a6a6c0c9&s=b><strong>广发证券研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国经济会衰退吗？今年美联储会降息吗？我国经济复苏现状如何，将如何发展？我国财政政策会作何调整？曾为中国空间站“天宫四号”设计了世界第一个空间冷原子实验平台。著有《量子大唠嗑》《人工智能之不能》《智造中国》。近期市场关于AI产业的讨论较多，我们的核心观点是什么？当前AI算力的竞争焦点在哪里？AI产业链有哪些投资机会？存储周期有哪些投资机会？01近期市场关于AI产业的讨论较多，我们的核心观点是什么？...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251216071926a6a6c0c9&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4612","symbol_name":"AI芯片","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251216071926a6a6c0c9&s=b","article_id":"2591620949","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251216071926a6a6c0c9&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2591620949","pubTimestamp":1765839969,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"01近期市场关于AI产业的讨论较多，我们的核心观点是什么？02当前AI算力的竞争焦点在哪里？03AI产业链有哪些投资机会？国产算力从“单点突围”转向“系统升维”，海内外算力充分受益AI产业的发展。DRAM和NAND架构升级，设备需求迎来新机。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK4612":"AI芯片","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","AMD":"美国超微公司","AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","BK4588":"碎股","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4605":"半导体精选","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU2098885051.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Multi-Manager Alternatives A (acc) SGD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1880398471.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU1880398554.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4023":"应用软件","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823434740.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) INC","BK4543":"AI","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","LU0274383776.USD":"MANULIFE GF US SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU2089985449.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU2355687059.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL IMPACT  \"BP\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU2931357623.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4528":"SaaS概念","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"GF Annual Strategy | What does the electronics industry think of in 2026?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"AI":0.9,"AMD":0.9},"content_text":"美国经济会衰退吗？今年美联储会降息吗？我国经济复苏现状如何，将如何发展？我国财政政策会作何调整？曾为中国空间站“天宫四号”设计了世界第一个空间冷原子实验平台。著有《量子大唠嗑》《人工智能之不能》《智造中国》。近期市场关于AI产业的讨论较多，我们的核心观点是什么？当前AI算力的竞争焦点在哪里？AI产业链有哪些投资机会？存储周期有哪些投资机会？01近期市场关于AI产业的讨论较多，我们的核心观点是什么？耿正：模型创新是AI发展的核心动力，AI CAPEX构筑AI周期的基石。在我们看来，大模型创新升级，能力越来越强，在chatbot、coding、多模态创作等场景快速渗透，持续拓展To C与To B端的应用领域，为AI产业链打开空间。AI CAPEX则构筑AI周期的基石：云厂商、头部企业以及主权国家在算力、数据中心和模型训练上的资本开支具有一定刚性与延续性，为上游算力、存储、连接、电源、散热等环节提供了可验证的订单与现金流支撑。02当前AI算力的竞争焦点在哪里？耿正：传统通用计算Wintel生态（CPU/Windows/通用应用）底层硬件以CPU为核心，中间层为Windows操作系统，顶层应用为多样化的通用软件。英伟达GPU生态下，各类领先的AI模型如OpenAI、Claude等构建在英伟达的GPU和CUDA生态之上。谷歌TPU生态则是“TPU+XLA+自有AI服务”的垂直整合模式，体现谷歌为优化自身AI产品而进行的软硬一体化专用设计。三者展现从通用计算到专用AI计算的产业演进路径，核心竞争已转向“专用硬件+计算平台+完整生态”的系统性竞争。03AI产业链有哪些投资机会？耿正：算力：GPU与ASIC共舞，生态优势主导行业地位。国产算力从“单点突围”转向“系统升维”，海内外算力充分受益AI产业的发展。AI PCB：单GPU、单ASIC对应PCB价值量持续提升，国内厂商积极扩产，CCL随PCB升级呈现高端化、多层化升级趋势。AI存储：Tokens的积分，AI推理中的分级存储协同支撑高效计算，驱动AI存储快速增长。AI电源：800V HVDC升级， SiC&GaN功率器件成长空间广阔。端侧AI：模型能力不断提高，拓宽智能新终端使用边界，产业链空间广阔。04存储周期有哪些投资机会？耿正：云侧和端侧存储搭载量显著增长，存储价格持续上涨，原厂毛利率显著提升。海外存储原厂资本开支进入上行区间，产能优先投向HBM，传统DRAM和NAND投产较为谨慎。DRAM和NAND架构升级，设备需求迎来新机。4F2+CBA工艺延续主流DRAM升级趋势；3D堆叠DRAM显著提升带宽指向AI推理市场；3D NAND堆叠层数持续升级；存储代工模式迎来产业变革机会；接口芯片MRDIMM和VPD打开新空间。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}